Insperity (NSP) just closed out FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$1.7b and a basic EPS loss of US$0.88, alongside trailing twelve month revenue of US$6.8b and basic EPS of US$0.19, reflecting a small loss over the year. The company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$1.6b in Q4 2024 to US$1.7b in Q4 2025. Over the same period, quarterly EPS has shifted from a loss of US$0.22 in Q4 2024 to a loss of US$0.88 in Q4 2025, and from a profit of US$1.34 in Q1 2025. This sets up a story where revenue scale is holding, while margins and earnings quality are the real focus for investors.

With the latest earnings on the table, the next step is to see how these numbers line up with the key narratives around Insperity, from its path back to consistent profitability to the risks around its current earnings profile.

Trailing 12-month loss alongside 4.9% revenue growth

• Over the last 12 months, Insperity generated about US$6.8b in revenue with a net loss of US$7 million, which works out to roughly 4.9% revenue growth while still being unprofitable.
• Bulls point out that analysts are modeling earnings to grow about 69.46% per year and for Insperity to move back into profitability within three years, yet the latest trailing loss suggests the starting point is a small negative base rather than positive earnings.
  • This gap between a US$7 million loss today and the bullish expectation of US$117.6 million in earnings by around 2028 means a lot of the bullish thesis rests on margins improving from roughly breakeven levels.
  • The bullish view also assumes revenue can compound in the mid single digits while profit margins rise from 0.6% to 1.5%. That is a different picture to the current year, where revenue grew modestly but stayed tied to losses.

Bulls argue that the current loss is a temporary step on the way to much higher earnings, so if you want to see how that story is built out in detail, 🐂 Insperity Bull Case

Quarterly swing from US$51m profit to US$33m loss

• Within FY 2025, net income moved from a US$51 million profit in Q1 to losses of US$5 million, US$20 million and US$33 million in Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively, even though quarterly revenue stayed in a fairly tight band between US$1.6b and US$1.9b.
• Consensus narrative talks about margin repair from pricing changes, benefit plan redesign and the UnitedHealthcare contract, but this step down from a profitable Q1 to three loss making quarters shows that margin pressure from healthcare and benefits costs is still a live issue.
  • Q4 revenue of US$1.7b was higher than Q4 2024 revenue of US$1.6b, yet net income went from a US$9 million loss a year ago to a US$33 million loss. This lines up with concerns about elevated benefits cost trends weighing on profit per worksite employee.
  • The fact that trailing revenue growth of 4.9% trails the cited 10.4% US market growth rate also supports the more cautious parts of the consensus view about slower end market conditions for small and mid sized businesses.

Low 0.2x P/S and an 8% dividend coverage risk

• On valuation, the shares trade at about 0.2x trailing sales and the DCF fair value cited is US$205.23 versus a share price of US$30, while the dividend yield of roughly 8% is flagged as not well covered by either earnings or free cash flow.
• Bears focus on the risk that persistent benefits inflation, reliance on small and mid sized clients and execution risk around HRScale could keep profitability under pressure. That would make both the high dividend and any valuation re rating harder to justify despite the low P/S and large DCF gap.
  • The move from a trailing profit of US$63 million a year ago to a US$7 million loss now fits with the bearish concern that losses have been growing at roughly 15.3% a year over five years, even as revenue has continued to grow modestly.
  • If earnings stay weak, the combination of an uncovered 8% dividend and a low P/S multiple could be read as the market pricing in those risks rather than simply overlooking the DCF fair value of US$205.23.

If you are weighing that low P/S ratio against the dividend coverage concerns and earnings track record, it can help to read how the skeptics frame the downside case in full: 🐻 Insperity Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Insperity on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

See the numbers differently? If the figures point you in another direction, you can turn that view into your own narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way

A great starting point for your Insperity research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

Insperity is wrestling with losses, margin pressure from benefits costs and an 8% dividend that is not covered by earnings or free cash flow.

If that mix of uncovered income and profit strain feels uncomfortable, compare it with companies where dividends look sturdier by checking out 13 dividend fortresses today.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.