Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Deere

What Is Deere's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at January 2024 Deere had debt of US$63.8b, up from US$54.8b in one year. On the flip side, it has US$3.83b in cash leading to net debt of about US$59.9b.

How Healthy Is Deere's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Deere had liabilities of US$36.3b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$42.9b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$3.83b as well as receivables valued at US$9.88b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$65.5b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of US$101.4b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Deere's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Deere has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.7 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 6.3 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Also relevant is that Deere has grown its EBIT by a very respectable 28% in the last year, thus enhancing its ability to pay down debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Deere's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, Deere's free cash flow amounted to 25% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Deere's net debt to EBITDA and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Deere is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Deere that you should be aware of before investing here.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.