• If you are wondering whether National Fuel Gas is still reasonably priced after its run, this breakdown will help you work out what you are really paying for today.
• The stock most recently closed at US$87.17, with reported returns of 2.7% over 7 days, 7.3% over 30 days, 6.2% year to date, 22.3% over 1 year, 70.9% over 3 years and 123.3% over 5 years.
• Recent coverage has focused on how National Fuel Gas fits into the wider US utilities sector and how investors are thinking about regulated operations, pipeline assets and upstream exposure. These all feed into views on value and risk. This context helps explain why some investors are revisiting the stock now and comparing it with other income oriented and infrastructure names.
• On our valuation checks, National Fuel Gas scores 4 out of 6 for signs of being undervalued. The next sections will walk through what different valuation approaches say about that number and hint at an even richer way to think about fair value at the end of the article.

Approach 1: National Fuel Gas Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows, then discounts them back to today to work out what those future dollars might be worth now.

For National Fuel Gas, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is reported at $28.97 million. Analyst projections and extrapolations suggest free cash flow rising to $435.62 million by 2035, with interim projections such as $413 million in 2026 and $366 million in 2028, all in $.

When those future cash flows are discounted back, Simply Wall St’s DCF model arrives at an estimated fair value of $96.66 per share. Compared to the recent share price of $87.17, this implies the stock is about 9.8% undervalued on this method, which is a relatively small gap and suggests the shares are close to their modeled intrinsic value.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

National Fuel Gas is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Approach 2: National Fuel Gas Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like National Fuel Gas, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for what investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. It reflects not just the current earnings base, but also what the market is implying about future growth and the level of risk investors are prepared to accept.

In general, faster and more reliable earnings growth, combined with lower perceived risk, supports a higher “normal” or “fair” P/E. Slower growth and higher risk tend to justify a lower multiple. National Fuel Gas currently trades on a P/E of 12.6x. That sits below the Gas Utilities industry average of 14.7x and the broader peer average of 20.2x, which suggests the market is applying a discounted multiple compared with many comparable names.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for National Fuel Gas is 19.4x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be, given the company’s earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics. Because it blends these company specific inputs rather than relying only on broad peer or industry comparisons, it can offer a more tailored sanity check. Against this Fair Ratio, the current 12.6x P/E points to the shares trading below that modeled level.

Result: UNDERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 23 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your National Fuel Gas Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you turn your view of National Fuel Gas into a clear story that links what you think will happen to its business, to a financial forecast, and then to your own fair value. This all happens within an accessible tool on the Community page that updates as new news or earnings arrive, helping you compare that fair value with the current share price and assess whether the stock looks attractive or not. You can lean closer to a more optimistic view that might align with a US$100 fair value, built on assumptions like revenue growth of about 12.66%, a profit margin near 25.48% and a future P/E around 13.12x. Alternatively, you can adopt a more cautious view that uses lower growth and margins and therefore a lower fair value. Both narratives can sit side by side so you can see how different perspectives on the same company lead to different conclusions about what to do next.

Do you think there's more to the story for National Fuel Gas? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.