• If you are wondering whether National Storage Affiliates Trust is fairly priced at its recent levels, this review will walk through what the current share price might be implying about its value.
• The stock last closed at US$33.47, with returns of 2.4% over the past week, a 1.0% decline over the past month, 20.0% year to date, and a 4.0% decline over the past year. This may signal shifting views on its potential and its risks.
• Recent coverage has focused on National Storage Affiliates Trust as part of broader discussions around US listed real estate investment trusts. Investors have been comparing storage focused names on income potential and valuation metrics. Those comparisons help frame how the current share price sits against peers that operate in similar parts of the property market.
• On our valuation checklist, National Storage Affiliates Trust scores 1 out of 6 on perceived undervaluation, as shown by our valuation score. Next we will look at the usual valuation approaches before finishing with a different way of thinking about what the market might be pricing in.

National Storage Affiliates Trust scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: National Storage Affiliates Trust Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The DCF model estimates what National Storage Affiliates Trust could be worth today by projecting its future adjusted funds from operations, then discounting those cash flows back to a present value.

For NYSE:NSA, the model uses a 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on adjusted funds from operations. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $304.1 million. Analysts provide free cash flow estimates out to 2030, with projections such as $284.8 million in 2026 and $320.7 million in 2030, and Simply Wall St extrapolates additional years beyond the explicit analyst horizon.

Pulling these projections together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $40.26 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$33.47, this implies the stock trades at a 16.9% discount to that intrinsic value. This suggests that National Storage Affiliates Trust may be potentially undervalued on this cash flow view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests National Storage Affiliates Trust is undervalued by 16.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 53 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: National Storage Affiliates Trust Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see what investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. A higher or lower P/E can make sense depending on what the market expects for future growth and how risky those earnings are perceived to be.

National Storage Affiliates Trust currently trades on a P/E of 54.65x. That sits well above the Specialized REITs industry average of 16.07x and above a peer group average of 31.80x. On the surface, that points to a richer valuation than many similar companies.

Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 31.68x, which is the P/E level it would expect for National Storage Affiliates Trust given factors such as its earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk characteristics. This Fair Ratio aims to be more tailored than a simple comparison to industry or peers because it attempts to adjust for the company’s own strengths and weaknesses rather than assuming all REITs deserve the same multiple. Compared with the current P/E of 54.65x, the Fair Ratio suggests the shares are pricing in more optimistic conditions than this framework would imply.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your National Storage Affiliates Trust Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simple stories you create about National Storage Affiliates Trust that tie your view of its future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and a fair value. You can then compare that fair value with the current price on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where Narratives are updated automatically when new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a higher value case closer to US$39.0, while another anchors a more cautious view nearer to US$30.0, both using the same data but different assumptions to decide whether the stock looks attractive or fully priced to them.

Do you think there's more to the story for National Storage Affiliates Trust? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.