Oscar Health (OSCR) is back in focus after Blue Square Asset Management disclosed it sold its entire stake, while Barclays shifted its rating higher and left investors weighing mixed institutional and analyst signals.

The market reaction to Blue Square’s exit and mixed quarterly results comes after a choppy year, with a 30 day share price return of 5.02% but a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 5.83%, and a very large 3 year total shareholder return that suggests long term momentum from a low base even as recent sentiment has cooled.

If this kind of institutional activity catches your eye, it can be useful to compare Oscar Health with other US healthcare names using healthcare stocks as a starting point for fresh ideas.

With Oscar Health now trading close to Barclays’ price target of $15.78 after a mixed run of returns and shifting institutional positions, you have to ask: is there still upside on the table, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 65.4% Undervalued

According to one of the most followed narratives, Oscar Health's fair value of $45.34 sits well above the last close of $15.68. This creates a wide gap between narrative expectations and where the market is currently pricing the stock.

Oscar Health is expanding its membership base at roughly 30% year over year, surpassing 2 million members, while maintaining $3.5 billion in cash reserves to absorb short term losses and invest in growth. Its proprietary +Oscar platform differentiates the company from traditional insurers through AI driven care navigation, predictive analytics, and telehealth integration, creating opportunities for higher margin, recurring revenue streams in the future.

Want to see what kind of earnings profile and margins are baked into that gap between price and fair value? The narrative leans heavily on fast membership expansion, richer platform style revenue and a future profit multiple that assumes a very different business mix from today. Curious how those moving parts combine to justify more than double the current price?

Result: Fair Value of $45.34 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside story collides with risks around ongoing net losses of US$244.087m, as well as any slowdown in membership or +Oscar platform adoption that could challenge the bullish fair value.

Build Your Own Oscar Health Narrative

If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply prefer building your own view from scratch, you can pull the same data, stress test the assumptions, and shape a thesis that fits your style in just a few minutes with Do it your way

A great starting point for your Oscar Health research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.