If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an eye out for. Amongst other things, we'll want to see two things; firstly, a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an expansion in the company's amount of capital employed. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for Kinder Morgan, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.064 = US$4.3b ÷ (US$72b - US$5.8b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

So, Kinder Morgan has an ROCE of 6.4%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Oil and Gas industry average of 10.0%.

In the above chart we have measured Kinder Morgan's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Kinder Morgan .

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

There hasn't been much to report for Kinder Morgan's returns and its level of capital employed because both metrics have been steady for the past five years. It's not uncommon to see this when looking at a mature and stable business that isn't re-investing its earnings because it has likely passed that phase of the business cycle. With that in mind, unless investment picks up again in the future, we wouldn't expect Kinder Morgan to be a multi-bagger going forward. That being the case, it makes sense that Kinder Morgan has been paying out 83% of its earnings to its shareholders. These mature businesses typically have reliable earnings and not many places to reinvest them, so the next best option is to put the earnings into shareholders pockets.

The Key Takeaway

We can conclude that in regards to Kinder Morgan's returns on capital employed and the trends, there isn't much change to report on. Yet to long term shareholders the stock has gifted them an incredible 138% return in the last five years, so the market appears to be rosy about its future. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.

Kinder Morgan does have some risks, we noticed 3 warning signs (and 2 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.