Shareholders might have noticed that RXO, Inc. (NYSE:RXO) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.2% to US$16.33 in the past week. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$5.7b, statutory losses exploded to US$0.59 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on RXO after the latest results.

Following last week's earnings report, RXO's 19 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$5.80b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 54% to US$0.28. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.94b and losses of US$0.15 per share in 2026. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on RXO after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$16.00, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values RXO at US$20.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$12.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await RXO shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that RXO's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.7% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that RXO is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$16.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for RXO going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of RXO's balance sheet, and whether we think RXO is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.