Luke Anami, Jackson Mutinda

As global superpowers clash over trade, Africa stands at a crossroads, faced with rising tariffs, disrupted exports and shifting supply chains. It’s also the end of an era as the Africa Growth Opportunity Act (Agoa) expires in two months’ time.

Faced with weakened bargaining power against the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff onslaught, African nations may have to prepare individual, direct negotiations with the US after President Donald Trump re-imposed higher trade tariffs from August 1.

Economists say trade wars and the attendant fragmentation is hurting sub-Saharan Africa more than the rest of the world. According to Standard Bank’s chief economist Goolam Ballim, Africa is set to forego four percent of its GDP over a decade.

Trump has already written letters to six countries across the globe, including South Africa, giving them three weeks to reach a deal with the US or pay a higher premium.

International trade has been crucial in propelling African growth over the past two decades, and experts have highlighted the relationship between gains in per capita income and openness to trade. But the ongoing trade wars not only herald a new world order but also signals the fraying of trans-Atlantic ties.

For Africa, the new wave of tariffs, coming after the 90-day pause, mean that Trump is interested in dealing directly with countries, rather than cutting a bloc-wide tariff arrangement.

President Trump this week met with leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal and said the five nations were unlikely to face US tariffs.

His Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Washington would look at a possible extension of Agoa, which provides duty-free access to over 1,800 products from sub-Saharan African countries, but would need to address many tariffs and non-tariff barriers still in place on the continent.

Oil initially dominated Agoa trade but it has recently been surpassed by manufacturing and mining.

Greer, asked about a possible extension of the Agoa beyond September, said that would be up to Congress, but said the decision should factor in the existing tariff and non-tariff barriers in place in Africa.“We still see a lot of tariff and non-tariff barriers in Africa, so I think any discussion about that act would also have to think about how we address those kinds of barriers,” he said.

But South Africa continues to face a threat from Washington after Trump, on July 7, in a letter addressed to the country’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, announced Pretoria’s exports to the US market would be subjected to a new 30 percent tariff with effect from August 1.

The US had set a July 9 deadline for countries to agree to a trade deal, but US officials now say tariffs will begin on August 1, with only a few countries coming to the negotiation table.

Trump’s new wave of tariffs has relegated discussions on Agoa to the backburner, and trade experts advise that the 33 sub-Saharan countries that trade with the US under Agoa seek alternatives.

African business leaders are pushing for a continental response to the tariff threat.

Economic powerAt the Standard Bank Africa Unlocked 2025 Conference in Cape Town this week, speakers pushed for the continent to claim its economic power in the face of Trump’s tariffs, amid fractured alliances, consolidation of digital power and climate-shaped industry.

They recommended a continental response prioritising acceleration of the African Continental Free Trade Area, increased participation in the global value chains and increased service trade. They also want Africa to improve the domestic investment climate, deepen financial markets and spread the tax base.

Speaking on the sidelines of the conference, he expressed optimism that America’s new tariff policy was going to “save the international order.”“African nations, realising that they will have to foster relationships with allies -- that they will have to encourage relationships with near geographies -- will need to increase their participation in global value chains where we’ve been underrepresented,” he said.

He sees the brewing trade war as an opportunity. On the 30 percent tariff on South African goods, he is optimistic that it will settle lower than the 30 percent Trump announced – “an equilibrium that is not as penalising as it now appears.”But he acknowledges that the relationship between Pretoria and Washington is materially changed.“We must operate under the notion that the benefits from Agoa will be whittled down, if not substantially reduced. That said, strengthening ties and almost finding opportunities brought out of America’s friction with Europe and with the Far East could mean that South African firms can insert themselves into the global supply chains at the expense of the United States. I’m already seeing anecdotes emerge where our clients are telling us that they are getting orders emanating, for instance, out of the Middle East and the Far East, and I think in this craziness of the moment is a certain opportunity South African manufacturers are harnessing,” the economist said.

Johnson Weru, who was Kenya’s Trade Principal Secretary when Nairobi began trade talks with Trump 1.0 under President Uhuru Kenyatta’s tenure, said that Trump’s contempt for the World Trade Organisation, which granted a waiver for Agoa 25 years ago, and his latest tariffs on six countries including Japan and South Korea, signals the end of an era.

“The Agoa waiver was granted by WTO on the request of USA in 2015. It was extended to September 2025. So, unless USA seeks another waiver from WTO -- which is highly unlikely -- the duty-free, quota-free market access for sub-Saharan African countries will come to an end,” he said.“Agoa will officially elapse on 30th September 2025. So, the choice of August 2025 by President Trump is quite strategic. Legally speaking, USA will not be bound by any international instrument not charge higher tariffs.”The trade talks between Trump’s first administration and Kenya were not completed but President Joe Biden, who took over from Trump started new talks which suffered a similar fate.

Mr Weru suggested that Trump’s preference for bilateral trade agreements was consistent with policy in his first term in office.

In his latest letter to President Ramaphosa, Trump said he wanted to move away from “long-term, and very persistent, trade deficits engendered by South Africa’s tariff and non-tariff policies and trade barriers.”“Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal. Starting on August 1, 2025, we will charge South Africa a tariff of only 30 percent on any and all South African products sent to the United States, separate from all sectoral tariffs,” he said.

He further warned that any retaliatory tariffs from Pretoria would be met with further hikes, indicating his relentless pursuit of tariffs even after countries such as China declined to fight over them.

In response, in a statement on Monday night, Ramaphosa said South Africa maintained that a “30 percent reciprocal tariff is not an accurate representation of available trade data.”“This 30 percent tariff is based on a particular interpretation of the balance of trade between South Africa and the United States. This contested interpretation forms part of the issues under consideration by the negotiating teams from South Africa and the United States,” the president’s office said in a statement. South Africa and other countries around the world, have been pushing to negotiate trade deals with the US to prevent Trump’s sweeping tariffs. But only two preliminary deals -- with the UK and Vietnam -- have since been announced.

A significant number of countries have remained silent or sent emissaries with the hope that the tariffs would be lowered.

Trump said he would send letters to countries telling them what the tariff rate would be if an agreement is not reached.

Other near-identical letters with varying tariff rates were sent to the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Myanmar, Laos, Kazakhstan and Malaysia.

Trump said another 10-15 letters would be sent to countries.

Dr Kizito Sabala, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi’s School of Diplomacy and International Studies, said Trump is sinking multilateralism.“It wasn’t there in the first place, but we believed it was. Agoa will only survive if in the mind of Trump, the US is benefiting. if not, he will just crush it and go bilateral,” Dr Sabala told The EastAfrican.

Trump has also warned that countries that side with the Brics+ alliance, which goes against US interests, will be hit with an extra 10 percent tariff.

“That is precisely why Africa should prioritise integration. That way, Trump and his ilk would have no option but to negotiate with the continent through such a framework – exactly what is happening in his engagement with members of the EU,” said Dr Benson Musila, a lecturer at Riara University in Nairobi.“He cannot, for instance, circumvent the EU to negotiate with, say, Germany. He must do so within the EU framework.”Meanwhile, China is still offering 53 African countries duty-free entry into its market.

According to Reuters, President Trump, reacting to this, on Wednesday told African leaders that he was shifting the US approach to the continent from aid to trade and that the United States is a better partner for Africa than China.

Trump has shuttered the US Agency for International Development and slashed funding for programmes that help Africans.“We’re shifting from aid to trade,” he said at the White House meeting. “There’s great economic potential in Africa, like few other places. In many ways, in the long run, this will be far more effective and sustainable and beneficial than anything else that we can be doing together.”Mr Ballim predicts that Africa could become the epicentre of the global manufacturing system, affording the continent clout to look Far East, West to South America, “and hopefully to the United States too.”“It’s possible to manage all of these new relationships. Economic diplomacy has become a lot more ardent. There are going to be trade-offs that governments are going to have to make, and clearly the United States is choosing a very assailing position.”

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