When researching a stock for investment, what can tell us that the company is in decline? Typically, we'll see the trend of both return on capital employed (ROCE) declining and this usually coincides with a decreasing amount of capital employed. This combination can tell you that not only is the company investing less, it's earning less on what it does invest. And from a first read, things don't look too good at Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), so let's see why.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Kohl's, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.062 = US$665m ÷ (US$14b - US$3.4b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to August 2024).

Thus, Kohl's has an ROCE of 6.2%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Multiline Retail industry average of 13%.

In the above chart we have measured Kohl's' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Kohl's .

So How Is Kohl's' ROCE Trending?

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Kohl's. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 11% that they were earning five years ago. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Kohl's becoming one if things continue as they have.

The Bottom Line On Kohl's' ROCE

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 49% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

One more thing: We've identified 2 warning signs with Kohl's (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding these would certainly be useful.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.