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Southern Copper Corporation's (NYSE:SCCO) 26% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | 213.43 | +7.70% |
Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. The annual gain comes to 107% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.
Following the firm bounce in price, Southern Copper may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 40.4x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 19x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Southern Copper certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
Southern Copper's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 26% gain to the company's bottom line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 49% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 13% each year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 12% per annum, which is not materially different.
With this information, we find it interesting that Southern Copper is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
What We Can Learn From Southern Copper's P/E?
Southern Copper's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Southern Copper currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is only in line with the wider market. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
You might be able to find a better investment than Southern Copper.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.


