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Stitch Fix, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFIX) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 27% Price Plummet
Stitch Fix, Inc. Class A SFIX | 3.38 | +0.45% |
Stitch Fix, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFIX) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 27% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 22% share price drop.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Stitch Fix's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x is worth a mention when the median P/S in the United States' Specialty Retail industry is similar at about 0.5x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
How Has Stitch Fix Performed Recently?
Stitch Fix could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Stitch Fix will help you uncover what's on the horizon.How Is Stitch Fix's Revenue Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Stitch Fix's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.
Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any revenue growth to speak of for the company over the past year. The lack of growth did nothing to help the company's aggregate three-year performance, which is an unsavory 33% drop in revenue. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 4.6% as estimated by the five analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 7.7% growth, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.
With this information, we find it interesting that Stitch Fix is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Final Word
Following Stitch Fix's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our look at the analysts forecasts of Stitch Fix's revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - Stitch Fix has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.


