ModivCare Inc. (NASDAQ:MODV) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 17% in the last month. But that is small recompense for the exasperating returns over three years. Regrettably, the share price slid 68% in that period. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. While many would remain nervous, there could be further gains if the business can put its best foot forward.

The recent uptick of 16% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for ModivCare

ModivCare isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last three years, ModivCare saw its revenue grow by 25% per year, compound. That is faster than most pre-profit companies. In contrast, the share price is down 19% compound, over three years - disappointing by most standards. This could mean hype has come out of the stock because the losses are concerning investors. When we see revenue growth, paired with a falling share price, we can't help wonder if there is an opportunity for those who are willing to dig deeper.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for ModivCare in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

ModivCare shareholders are down 64% for the year, but the market itself is up 18%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for ModivCare that you should be aware of.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.