Third Coast Bancshares TCBX Net Margin Surge Challenges Cautious Earnings Narratives

Third Coast Bancshares Inc +0.72%

Third Coast Bancshares Inc

TCBX

40.76

+0.72%

Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) closed out FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$54.2 million and EPS of US$1.21, while on a trailing twelve month basis revenue reached US$201.3 million and EPS came in at US$4.45. The company has seen revenue move from US$158.9 million and EPS of US$2.85 on a trailing basis in Q3 2024 to US$201.3 million and EPS of US$4.45 by Q4 2025, alongside trailing net income rising from US$38.9 million to US$61.5 million over the same window. With net profit margins now at 30.6% and earnings growth complemented by revenue momentum, the latest results present investors with a profitability profile that invites closer attention to what is driving the story.

See our full analysis for Third Coast Bancshares.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to examine how this earnings profile lines up with the prevailing narratives around growth, quality, and sustainability, and where those storylines might need updating.

NYSE:TCBX Earnings & Revenue History as at Jan 2026
NYSE:TCBX Earnings & Revenue History as at Jan 2026

Net margin and earnings growth working together

  • Over the last 12 months, Third Coast Bancshares earned US$61.5 million on US$201.3 million of revenue, which lines up with the 30.6% net profit margin and reflects trailing earnings growth of 43.4% year over year alongside a five year average annual earnings growth rate of 36.3%.
  • What stands out for a bullish narrative is how the margin and growth numbers line up. The 30.6% net margin sits next to that 43.4% trailing earnings growth, while quarterly EPS moved from US$0.90 in Q1 2025 to US$1.21 in Q4 2025. Taken together, this heavily supports the idea that recent profitability has been solid rather than a one off spike.
    • On a trailing basis, EPS went from US$2.85 in Q3 2024 to US$4.45 by Q4 2025, alongside net income moving from US$38.9 million to US$61.5 million. This lines up with the view that the earnings base has grown meaningfully over that window.
    • At the same time, revenue on a trailing basis moved from US$158.9 million to US$201.3 million, so the earnings progress is paired with a bigger top line. This supports the bullish focus on both margin quality and scale rather than cost cutting alone.
Have the recent margin gains really reset the earnings story for TCBX, or is this just a high point in the cycle waiting to be tested by future reports? 📊 Read the full Third Coast Bancshares Consensus Narrative.

Net interest margin and loan quality in focus

  • Within the FY 2025 quarters, the reported net interest margin sat at 3.8% in Q1 2025, 4.22% in Q2 2025, and 4.1% in Q3 2025, while non performing loans were US$18.6 million in Q1 2025, US$20.1 million in Q2 2025, and US$21.7 million in Q3 2025, compared with US$27.9 million in Q4 2024 on a trailing view.
  • For investors thinking in a bullish frame, the combination of a net interest margin above 4% in Q2 and Q3 2025 and non performing loans that are lower in the trailing snapshots than the Q4 2024 starting point supports the idea of a bank that is earning well on its loan book while keeping reported problem loans contained. At the same time, the figures also invite a closer look at how stable that 4% level and the non performing loan trend might be over time.
    • Total loans in the quarterly data sit in a fairly tight band, from US$3,888.8 million in Q3 2024 to US$4,165.1 million in Q3 2025, so those net interest margin readings are being earned on a loan book that is already above US$4b, which matters when you think about scale.
    • The movement in non performing loans from US$27.9 million in the trailing Q4 2024 data to US$21.7 million in the trailing Q3 2025 data is part of the story bullish investors point to when they argue that recent profitability has come with credit metrics that, on these figures, look reasonably controlled.

P/E of 9.6x versus DCF fair value

  • The valuation data shows a P/E of 9.6x compared with 12.1x for US banks and 15.3x for peers, a current share price of US$42.33, and a DCF fair value figure of US$59.19, which places the shares about 28.5% below that DCF fair value estimate.
  • Bears might argue that any discount to a DCF fair value or peer P/E could reflect concern about sustaining the 30.6% net margin or the 43.4% trailing earnings growth rate, yet the combination of that 9.6x P/E, the US$42.33 share price being below both the sector P/E multiples and the DCF fair value of US$59.19, and the forecast annual growth figures of 16.4% for

    Next Steps

    Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Third Coast Bancshares's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

    See What Else Is Out There

    For all the strong recent profitability, TCBX still faces questions around how durable its current margin and earnings profile will be over time.

    If you want companies where the growth story already looks steadier across different periods, use our stable growth stocks screener (2176 results) to quickly zero in on businesses with more consistent expansion.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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