• In early February 2026, DaVita Inc. reported fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of US$3,619.79 million and full‑year 2025 revenue of US$13.64 billion, alongside a year-on-year decline in net income and earnings per share.
• Over the same period, DaVita completed very large share repurchase programs totaling more than US$7.45 billion since 2020, significantly shrinking its share count and underscoring management’s commitment to capital returns while it advances integrated, value-based kidney care.
• Next, we’ll examine how DaVita’s sizable buybacks and integrated care progress may shape its existing investment narrative and risk profile.

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DaVita Investment Narrative Recap

To own DaVita, you need to be comfortable with a dialysis business that is pairing heavy capital returns with a shift toward integrated, value-based kidney care. The latest results show higher revenue but lower net income and earnings per share, so the near term focus stays on whether integrated care can offset margin pressure while patient mortality, missed treatments and reimbursement updates remain key risks. The new buyback data does not materially change those near term catalysts or risks.

The most relevant update is that DaVita has now completed more than US$7.45 billion of share repurchases across its 2020 and 2024 authorizations, reducing the share count meaningfully. Set against 2025 net income of US$746.8 million, this scale of buyback amplifies per share exposure to both the upside of integrated kidney care turning more profitable and the downside if treatment volumes, reimbursement or cost trends work against the business.

Yet investors should also weigh how persistent treatment volume headwinds and reimbursement pressures could limit the benefits of those buybacks and integrated care gains...

DaVita's narrative projects $15.0 billion revenue and $970.4 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how DaVita's forecasts yield a $147.75 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were previously assuming revenue could reach about US$15.3 billion and earnings US$1.1 billion, which is a much rosier view than the risk that integrated kidney care and value based programs remain volatile and slower to monetize than hoped, especially in light of DaVita’s recent earnings trends and massive buybacks that both narratives may need to be updated for.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on DaVita - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own DaVita Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your DaVita research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free DaVita research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate DaVita's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.