• On 6 January 2026, TPG Inc. and Jackson Financial Inc. announced a long‑term investment management partnership under which TPG will manage at least US$12.00 billion of Jackson assets, targeting US$20.00 billion, alongside a US$500.00 million minority equity investment in Jackson and US$150.00 million of TPG stock issued to Jackson.
• The cross‑equity structure and large credit mandate deepen TPG’s insurance footprint, reinforcing its push into asset‑light fee income from investment‑grade asset‑based finance and direct lending.
• With this long‑term insurance partnership and multi‑billion‑dollar mandate in place, we’ll assess how it reshapes TPG’s investment narrative.

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TPG Investment Narrative Recap

To own TPG, you need to believe in its shift toward more stable, fee-based earnings from scaled credit and insurance partnerships. The Jackson deal gives TPG a large, long-duration US$12.0 billion mandate in investment grade asset based finance and direct lending, which may support near term fee visibility, but it does not remove the bigger risk around industry wide fundraising slowdowns and pressure on long term AUM growth.

Among recent developments, the strong Q3 2025 revenue of US$1,223.52 million and sharply higher net income highlight how scaling newer platforms has already flowed through to the P&L. The Jackson partnership sits squarely in this expansion theme into insurance channels and credit, which many investors see as a key catalyst for improving earnings quality and potentially offsetting periods of weaker private equity fundraising.

Yet, against this push into fee based insurance capital, investors still need to be aware of the risk that...

TPG's narrative projects $2.3 billion revenue and $827.7 million earnings by 2028. This requires a 16.5% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about $807.5 million from $20.2 million today.

Uncover how TPG's forecasts yield a $66.00 fair value, a 5% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members currently place TPG’s fair value between US$40.90 and US$66.00 across 2 independent estimates, showing very different expectations. Set against this, the growing reliance on insurance and private wealth channels as a catalyst for fee income stability may have very different implications for performance than some of these community scenarios assume, so it is worth comparing several viewpoints before forming a view.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on TPG - why the stock might be worth 41% less than the current price!

Build Your Own TPG Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your TPG research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free TPG research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate TPG's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.