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X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:XFOR) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon
X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. XFOR | 3.95 | +6.76% |
With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 12.4x in the Biotechs industry in the United States, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:XFOR) P/S ratio of 10.6x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
How Has X4 Pharmaceuticals Performed Recently?
With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, X4 Pharmaceuticals has been doing relatively well. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is moderate because investors think this strong revenue performance might be about to tail off. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on X4 Pharmaceuticals will help you uncover what's on the horizon.How Is X4 Pharmaceuticals' Revenue Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, X4 Pharmaceuticals would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.
If we review the last year of revenue growth, we see the company's revenues grew exponentially. In spite of this unbelievable short-term growth, the latest three year period hasn't been as great in aggregate as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 47% per year as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 121% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.
With this in mind, we find it intriguing that X4 Pharmaceuticals' P/S is closely matching its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
The Key Takeaway
It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Given that X4 Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth projections are relatively subdued in comparison to the wider industry, it comes as a surprise to see it trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.
Having said that, be aware X4 Pharmaceuticals is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.


