XPeng (XPEV) is in focus after launching start and stop charging payments in its app for Hong Kong, using Antom’s global payments platform to streamline EV charging and broaden its international reach.

These charging payment upgrades land after a busy few months for XPeng, including January deliveries of 20,011 vehicles, and come as the 7 day share price return of 4.86% contrasts with a 90 day share price return decline of 29.23% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 10.97%. This suggests short term momentum has been weak, while longer term holders have still seen gains.

If XPeng’s international push has caught your attention, this could be a good moment to see how other EV related names stack up in our list of 34 AI infrastructure stocks.

XPeng’s shares trade below some estimates of intrinsic value and analyst targets. However, recent returns have been mixed. Is this a mispriced growth story you can still get ahead of, or is the market already factoring in what comes next?

Most Popular Narrative: 37.1% Undervalued

XPeng’s most followed narrative puts fair value at $28.16, well above the recent $17.70 close, and builds that gap around software heavy, higher margin growth.

XPeng's rapid in house development and deployment of proprietary AI hardware (Turing AI SoC) and vision based ADAS are expected to significantly advance its vehicle autonomy and smart cockpit solutions, aligning with surging consumer demand for intelligent, software centric vehicles, and setting the stage for higher margin software revenue and enhanced gross/net margins.

Curious what has to happen for that valuation to make sense? Revenue needs to scale fast, margins need to shift sharply, and earnings expectations sit on ambitious assumptions.

Result: Fair Value of $28.16 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are still clear pressure points, including ongoing net losses and intense EV price competition in China, that could challenge XPeng’s margin and growth narrative.

Another View: Pricing Looks Rich On Sales

The earlier fair value work points to XPeng trading below some DCF based estimates, but the simple revenue multiple tells a tighter story. At a P/S of 1.7x, XPeng sits well above the US Auto industry at 0.6x and just above its fair ratio of 1.6x, even though it is below peer levels around 2x.

In practice, that means you are already paying a premium to the wider industry for each dollar of XPeng’s sales, with only a small cushion versus the fair ratio, which could limit upside if expectations cool. Does that premium still feel comfortable given the company is not yet profitable?

Build Your Own XPeng Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to weigh the trade offs yourself, you can build a custom XPeng thesis in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding XPeng.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.