July 8 (Reuters) - HSBC on Wednesday cut its 2026 Brent crude forecast from $95 a barrel to $80 a barrel, assuming Gulf oil exports return to normal levels by the end of September.

The bank also lowered its 2027 Brent forecast from $75 to $65 a barrel.

Earlier today, oil prices rose by more than six percent, hitting their highest level in two weeks after US President Donald Trump announced that the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict with Iran was "over".

Here are some details from the HSBC report:

• The adjustment reflects expectations of a faster rebalancing of the oil market, a process that began before the agreement between the United States and Iran and accelerated with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

• The bank expects shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to recover to about 80 percent of pre-conflict levels by the end of September, and for alternative pipelines to be fully operational.

• With oil flows returning to normal, the market is likely to return to a state of surplus starting from the fourth quarter of 2026.

• By the end of the first quarter of 2027, global oil inventories could return to the unprecedented levels recorded in February 2026, offsetting the withdrawals recorded between March and September, before continuing to rise to potentially new unprecedented levels.

• A periodic surplus of 3.7 million barrels per day could emerge, partially offset by demand to reconstitute inventories ranging between one and two million barrels per day.

• The upside potential hinges on a slower and more volatile recovery in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and exploration and production activities in the Gulf, as well as increased Chinese demand for purchasing or replenishing stockpiles.