Correction of the name in paragraph 32 to be Abdul Aziz bin Saqr

From Samia Nakhoul

DUBAI, Nov 9 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump has spoken of the possibility of Saudi Arabia agreeing to normalize relations with Israel, but it is unlikely to happen during Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the White House this month.

The establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the Kingdom after decades of hostility could shake up the political and security landscape in the Middle East, and would likely enhance American influence in the region.

Trump said last month that he hoped Saudi Arabia would "very soon" join other Muslim countries that signed the 2020 Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel.

But two Gulf sources told Reuters that Riyadh had made it clear to Washington through diplomatic channels that its position had not changed and that it would not join those agreements unless a roadmap for the establishment of a Palestinian state was put in place.

They added that the goal was to avoid any diplomatic missteps and ensure alignment between Saudi and American positions before making public statements. One of them explained that the aim was to avoid any confusion during or after the White House talks on November 18.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer for the Middle East, said it was unlikely the crown prince would "accept any form of formalization of relations in the near future without at least a credible path to the establishment of a Palestinian state."

Panikov, who currently works at the Atlantic Council's research center in Washington, believes that Prince Mohammed bin Salman will try to use his influence with Trump to gain "more explicit and stronger support for the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state."

Optimistic comments

The November 18 visit marks the crown prince's first trip to Washington since the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and critic of the crown prince's policies. His assassination at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul sparked global outrage. Prince Mohammed bin Salman has denied any direct involvement in the killing.

The UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have already joined the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel, and Trump said he expects the agreements to be expanded soon.

"There are many who are now joining the Abraham Accords, and we hope that Saudi Arabia will join very soon," the US president said on November 5, without providing a timeline.

In a television interview broadcast on October 17, Trump said, "I hope to see Saudi Arabia join the agreements, and I hope to see other countries join. I think when Saudi Arabia joins, everyone will join."

However, the agreement signed by the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco did not include the issue of establishing a Palestinian state.

The two Gulf sources said that Riyadh made it clear to Washington that any move to recognize Israel must be within a new framework and not simply an extension of any existing agreement.

Given the kingdom’s standing in the Islamic world, recognizing Israel would be more than just a diplomatic achievement; it is a highly sensitive national security issue linked to resolving one of the region’s oldest and most complex conflicts.

Such a step would be difficult to implement given the lack of trust in Israel by Arab public opinion, especially after the large-scale military campaign in Gaza, even with the fragile ceasefire currently in place.

The latest war in the sector broke out following the attack led by the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.

Manal Radwan, the Saudi Foreign Ministry's Minister Plenipotentiary, called for a clear and time-bound withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, the deployment of an international protection force, and the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza and its support.

She said these steps are necessary for the establishment of a Palestinian state, which is the essential condition for regional integration and the implementation of the two-state solution.

The two sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia does not see a possibility at the moment of meeting Trump's demand to normalize relations with Israel, given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's strong opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Saudi officials say progress on this issue depends on concessions that neither Washington nor Israel is currently willing to make.

Trump and the Crown Prince are moving towards signing a defense agreement.

Saudi officials apparently intend to steer the meeting between Trump and Prince Mohammed bin Salman toward defense cooperation and investment, anticipating the possibility that the politically charged issue of normalizing relations with Israel will dominate the agenda.

The meeting is expected to result in a crucial defense agreement that will define the scope of U.S. military protection for the de facto ruler of the world’s largest oil-exporting nation, and strengthen the U.S. military foothold in the Gulf region.

However, the scope of this potential agreement has been reduced.

Two other Gulf sources and three Western diplomats said the defense agreement falls short of the full treaty ratified by Congress that Riyadh sought in exchange for the long-promised normalization of relations with Israel.

The agreement, loosely worded along the lines of an arrangement with Qatar put in place by executive order in September, aims to expand cooperation to include advanced technology and defense.

According to the two Gulf sources, Riyadh pushed for the inclusion of clauses that would allow future US administrations to upgrade the agreement to a full treaty, a guarantee of continuity for a non-binding agreement that is vulnerable to cancellation by future presidents.

David Makovsky, a researcher at the Washington Institute where he runs a project on Arab-Israeli relations, said, "It's not the treaty they want; they may not see it as perfect, but it's the foundation (for a full treaty)."

Gulf sources and Western diplomats said that linking the defense agreement with normalization with Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian state produced a complex negotiating equation, which led Riyadh and Washington to settle for a limited defense agreement in the absence of progress on the other two tracks.

They say this settlement could eventually evolve into a full treaty if the normalization process progresses.

Abdul Aziz bin Saqr, head of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said, "The Saudi-American negotiations have witnessed a radical change in the environment and circumstances following the developments in Gaza since October 7."

He stated that the direct link between normalizing relations with Israel and establishing a Palestinian state still exists, but Riyadh now wants to deal with Saudi national security requirements separately.

He added, "The Saudi position is clear in saying that the United States meeting Saudi national security demands will help shape the Saudi position on regional issues, including settling the Palestinian conflict."

* The Iranian threat is receding

A NATO-style defense agreement appears to be a remote prospect, given changing regional calculations and political obstacles in Washington.

Iran, the main threat that previously drove Riyadh’s pursuit of binding U.S. guarantees, has become strategically weakened over the past year due to Israeli attacks on its nuclear and military infrastructure.

Groups allied with Iran, namely Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in Gaza and the Houthi group in Yemen, have also been hit hard.

With the decline in Iranian pressure, the desire to conclude a treaty requiring the approval of two-thirds of Congress has diminished, especially in the absence of normalization with Israel.

The two Gulf sources said such an agreement would likely come with conditions, including restrictions on Saudi Arabia’s expanding economic and technological ties with China, hindering Riyadh’s efforts to balance strategic independence with U.S. security guarantees.

The sources added that the current agreement would expand the scope of joint military exercises and enhance cooperation between US and Saudi defense companies, and also includes guarantees to limit military-industrial relations between Riyadh and China.

This move would also accelerate sales of advanced US weapons to the Kingdom, bypassing delays and political obstacles that have hampered previous deals.

(Reporting by Alexander Cornwell in Manama and Matt Spitalnick in Washington - Prepared for the Arabic Bulletin by Rehab Alaa, Doaa Mohamed and Hatem Ali - Edited by Muath Abdulaziz)