The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz frees up significant oil supplies and puts downward pressure on prices.
NEW DELHI/SINGAPORE, June 18 (Reuters) - Middle East crude markets could come under further pressure if the Strait of Hormuz reopens on Friday following a temporary agreement between the United States and Iran, oil executives said, which would release millions of barrels of oil stuck in the Gulf region into global markets.
This surge in supply comes after Gulf producers ramped up exports via ship-to-ship transfers off the coasts of the UAE and Oman this month, pushing Middle East crude spot price differentials to reduced levels on Tuesday.
“The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could release around 93 million barrels of non-Iranian oil currently trapped in the Gulf, while producers are expected to continue supplying through less exposed channels,” said Moyo Xu, an analyst at Kpler, in a note dated June 17. Some traders estimate that around 50 million barrels are set to be released, with some shipments already having been transported.
In addition, Kpler said that lifting US restrictions on Iranian crude could lead to the release of about 72 million barrels stuck on tankers west of the Iranian city of Chabahar, with the quantities expected to rise even further if Washington grants a broader easing of sanctions.
Iran’s fleet is preparing to increase exports, with three tankers leaving the strait this week, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
US and Iranian officials said that US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian digitally signed a 14-point agreement on Wednesday to end the war. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said the agreement had already taken effect.
