Analysis – Potential flaws threaten the ceasefire agreement in northeastern Syria
By Firas Dalati, Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Orhan Karaman, and Jonathan Spicer
February 13 (Reuters) - A U.S.-backed ceasefire in northeast Syria leaves thorny questions unanswered, as the Kurds seek to retain some power despite their capabilities being significantly diminished following the rapid advance of central government forces.
The progress of the agreement puts the ability of Syria’s new leaders to the test in a country torn apart by 14 years of war, following several waves of violence against minorities who are suspicious of the Islamist-led government.
The conflict over northeast Syria has brought about the biggest change in control since the overthrow of former President Bashar al-Assad in December 2014. After months of stalemate, Damascus seized large swathes of territory from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces before agreeing to a plan to integrate the remaining SDF-held territory into the state.
The implementation of the initial steps has been proceeding smoothly since the January 29 agreement, with small units of government forces deployed in two Kurdish-run cities, fighters withdrawing from the front lines, and Damascus announcing on Friday the appointment of a governor nominated by the Kurds.
But dozens of government and Kurdish officials said key issues have yet to be addressed, including how to integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces fighters, the fate of their heavy weapons, and arrangements for a border crossing into Iraq that has been a lifeline for them.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) currently maintain full control over the areas they still hold. However, Noah Younesi of the International Crisis Group says the question of how much power the SDF will retain remains unanswered.
He added that making further progress in implementing the agreement currently seems the most likely scenario, "but the risk of... making mistakes, and therefore the risk of renewed escalation in the end, remains high."
Washington expresses satisfaction
President Ahmed al-Sharaa was able to restore the central government's control over most of Syria.
A Western official, who asked not to be identified, said that Washington, which withdrew some of its forces from Syria this week, was pleased with the progress made toward integration and urged al-Sharaa to be as flexible as possible with the demands of the Syrian Democratic Forces.
The official added that the United States' advice is to avoid taking a hard line as a gesture of goodwill, as there is a desire to grant the Kurds a degree of autonomy that does not pose a threat to the basic need for a central authority in Damascus.
The US State Department responded to a request for comment by referring to a statement from Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack, who said the agreement paves the way for lasting peace for all Syrians. The Syrian Ministry of Information and the Syrian Democratic Forces have not yet responded to requests for comment.
The agreement, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, stipulates that the Ministry of Defense will form a division for the northeast that will integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces into three brigades.
It also stipulates the deployment of 15 government security vehicles in each of the cities of Qamishli and Hasakah, which are controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the commencement of "integrating the security forces affiliated with the Syrian Democratic Forces."
The deployments this month proceeded without incident, unlike the government's attempt to enter the predominantly Druze city of Suwaida last July, which resulted in deadly violence. Meanwhile, the United States transferred thousands of ISIS prisoners, previously held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, to Iraq.
But there are also indications of disagreement on the ground.
Two Syrian security officials said that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) accuse the government of besieging the Kurdish town of Ain al-Arab (Kobani), which is isolated from the main SDF-controlled areas, while Arabs living in SDF-controlled areas are resentful of its continued control, particularly in Hasakah, which is not dominated by any particular ethnicity.
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazloum Abdi said the three SDF brigades would be stationed in Qamishli, Hasakah, and Derik, near the Iraqi border. However, officials from both sides said a preliminary understanding had been reached regarding a location near Qamishli, but no agreement had yet been reached on the other two sites.
Syrian military sources reported that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) want to station one of their brigades on Mount Abdul Aziz, near the city of Hasakah, which overlooks its southern entrances and a vast network of tunnels. Damascus opposes this.
A Kurdish official believes that security should be handled by Kurds.
The predominantly Arab areas, including Deir ez-Zor and its oil fields, quickly fell to the government. However, the agreement requires the Syrian Democratic Forces to hand over the Rmeilan and Suwaidiya oil fields near Qamishli, as well as Qamishli Airport. This has not yet happened.
An intelligence officer in the region described the concessions made so far by the Syrian Democratic Forces as symbolic.
Abdulkarim Omar, a senior Kurdish official, told Reuters that government security forces would withdraw after coordinating and finalizing "integration mechanisms".
He said, "The Kurdish security forces (Asayish) will be part of the Ministry of Interior, and they will be the ones protecting this region from within," adding that there is a need for "extensive discussions" regarding the implementation of the agreement.
Türkiye is skeptical and views the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which form the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which waged a decades-long insurgency in Turkey before entering into a peace process.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that the withdrawal of the People's Protection Units (YPG) had created a better map of the security situation, but that Turkey's security concerns would not be completely eliminated unless the YPG severed its ties with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and underwent a period of "historic transformation."
