From the sleepless nights of Darin

LONDON, July 13 (Reuters) - Europe has imported jet fuel from the United States and Asia, increased refinery output and tapped into its stockpiles to keep air traffic going - yet it remains the most vulnerable region as renewed tensions in the Middle East increase the likelihood of further supply disruptions.

Britain, France and Germany are particularly at risk on a continent where decades of refinery closures have made them more dependent than others on Middle Eastern shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait was partially reopened in June after the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. It had been a waterway for about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments until the outbreak of war with Iran following US and Israeli strikes at the end of February.

But both sides resumed strikes this month.

Energy Aspects consultancy data released on June 18 predicted a supply deficit in Europe of about 600,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, compared to a surplus of 116,000 barrels per day in the United States and 425,000 barrels per day in the Asia-Pacific region.

Energy Aspects reported that inventories stood at 38 million barrels at the beginning of June, compared to 99 million barrels in the United States. Reuters calculations indicate that European inventories will cover demand for less than 30 days, making it the tightest of the major jet fuel markets.

The latest available data from the International Energy Agency's most recent monthly report shows that jet fuel stocks rose temporarily by 10 percent year-on-year at the end of May, while refinery output increased by 30 percent. These figures also represent a timeframe of just one month.

"We still expect some supply shortages until August if this pace continues," said Janev Shah, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

The European Commission acknowledged that the situation could worsen.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said in June that the bloc was facing a shortage of jet fuel stocks as the summer holiday season drew to a close, and that Brussels would coordinate the withdrawal from national reserves if necessary.

Shipments from Canada and South Korea

Until the outbreak of war on February 28, Europe relied on the Middle East for about half of its jet fuel imports.

In March, analysts predicted that African countries, which imported most of their jet fuel from the Middle East, would be the hardest hit.

However, these countries were able to increase their imports from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery as well as from India and Oman, according to data from commodities information firm Kpler.

Meanwhile, Europe has so far managed to avoid running out of supplies by turning to new sources such as Canada.

According to Kpler data, Europe imported a total of 673,000 barrels per day of jet fuel in June, its highest level since October 2025.

The United States and Nigeria were the largest exporters to Europe, and Kuwait, Canada, India and South Korea also provided shipments.

Imports from India in June reached their highest level since February, and nearly 25,000 Kuwaiti barrels per day are scheduled to arrive in August for the first time since early March through ship-to-ship transfers.

Before the flows stopped, Kuwait was one of the largest suppliers of jet fuel to the region.

Italian refineries increased jet fuel production by 10 percent during the first four months of the year.

The country's imports fell by six percent, allowing domestic production to meet nearly 70 percent of demand in March and April, according to the Italian Fuel Producers Association.

Industry sources said that Eni, which accounts for about half of Italy's jet fuel production capacity, boosted its output by importing products from outside Europe.

Meanwhile, jet fuel prices in northwestern Europe have fallen to around $133.27 a barrel from $215.32 at the end of March, easing pressure on airlines. Fuel typically accounts for between 20% and 25% of operating costs.

Analysts rule out immediate reductions in airfare prices due to strong demand and limited capacity, especially after many airlines cut flights to make the most of fuel supplies.

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