From Tim Reid

WASHINGTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump presented himself in an election year as the top Republican spokesman on the cost of living, but a Reuters review of his speeches showed he repeatedly declared inflation beaten while rarely acknowledging the pressures many Americans say they still feel.

In five speeches on the economy since December, Trump has asserted nearly 20 times that inflation has been overcome or has fallen significantly, and almost 30 times that prices are declining—assertions that contradict economic data and voters' everyday experiences. The president has spent most of the remaining time in his speeches voicing grievances and addressing other issues, including immigration, whether Somalia is a country, and criticizing his opponents.

Overall, the speeches portray a president struggling to reconcile his central claim—that he has solved the cost-of-living crisis—with the fact that inflation has hovered near 3 percent over the past year and the cost of basic food items has risen for voters. For example, the price of ground beef has increased by 18 percent since Trump took office a year ago, while the price of ground coffee has risen by 29 percent.

Republican strategists told Reuters that his conflicting messages on the issue most important to voters risk damaging his credibility and that of the Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections, when control of Congress is at stake. Polls show voters are deeply dissatisfied with Trump's handling of the economy.

Republican strategist Rob Godfrey said, "He can't continue making claims that have been proven false, especially at the expense of Republicans who are competing in competitive districts for the House or Senate." He added that Trump "needs to be disciplined and focused."

A source close to the White House said the president needs to focus more on the issue of affordability through personal visits to crucial constituencies.

The source, who asked not to be identified so he could speak more freely about the matter, added, "He has to get the message across because it's not getting through."

White House spokesman Khush Desai said that Trump's focus on illegal immigration in his speeches is directly related to his view that those in the country illegally have a negative impact on the economy. Desai added that this would "burden public services, disrupt business activity due to crime, flood the housing market, and reduce workers' wages."

Desai explained that Trump has repeatedly stressed that there is still much work to be done to eliminate the economic mess that he says his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, left him.

Trump deviates from his message to attack immigration

A Reuters analysis concluded that when Trump is not announcing a victory over inflation, he devotes nearly half of his speaking time to complaints and other issues.

A Reuters analysis found that in roughly five hours of speech, Trump spent about two hours digressing and touching on roughly 20 topics unrelated to prices. When he did go off-topic, his most prominent issue was illegal immigration, on which he spent roughly 30 to 40 minutes in total.

In his speeches, he insulted Somali-Americans in Minnesota who voted against him in the 2024 election. He referred to Somalia as "not even a country." In four speeches, he criticized Somali-born Minnesota Congresswoman Ilhan Omar.

Omar, a prominent progressive Democrat and Muslim, was a frequent critic of Trump, particularly over his immigration policies.

“Every time the President of the United States chooses to use hateful language to talk about me and the community I represent, the death threats I receive increase,” Omar said last month, the day after a man sprayed a foul-smelling liquid on her during a public meeting.

Trump also spoke about men participating in women's sports, Venezuela, Iran, ISIS, Greenland, Ukraine, Russia, military recruitment, his false claim that the 2020 election was rigged, and American weapons. He also addressed his exaggerated claim of ending eight wars and even how much a Fox News host admired him.

Trump's switching between topics is worrying

"Inflation has stopped. Incomes have risen. Prices have fallen," Trump said in a speech in Iowa on January 27.

Trump acknowledged only twice in five speeches that prices were still too high, but blamed Biden for it. Trump was elected in 2024 due to voter dissatisfaction with Biden's handling of inflation, which exceeded nine percent in 2022, and illegal immigration.

Speaking at a rally in Pennsylvania on December 9, Trump said that Democrats had caused "prices to rise dramatically... but now they are falling."

In the same speech, he described the term "affordability" as a "hoax" perpetrated by Democrats. Following a backlash from the audience, he stopped using that term in his later speeches.

In four of the speeches, a Reuters review concluded that Trump frequently and randomly changed topics, often when he was in the middle of talking about the economy.

Four Republican strategists interviewed by Reuters said Trump’s much-vaunted “weaving” style of switching between topics poses a risk to his core economic argument that he has lowered inflation and prices.

In his speech to world leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 21, Trump spent the first 22 minutes talking about the subject, then suddenly, during the next 22 minutes, he insulted Europeans, saying they would have been speaking German if it weren't for "America," called NATO ungrateful, and criticized the "corrupt" media before returning to talk about the American economy.

Republican strategist Doug Heye said voters want to hear what Trump is doing to cut costs, "but they don't remember what Trump says about economic issues because of the sheer volume of his speeches."

A source familiar with White House thinking suggested that Trump would make his February 24 State of the Union address the start of more intensive domestic visits to reinforce his message on affordability.

Trump offers solutions

For many Americans, the economy still looks precarious. Prices remain high despite inflation falling from 3 percent to 2.7 percent since Trump took office.

Economists emphasize that a lower inflation rate does not mean lower prices, but only that they are growing at a slower pace.

According to government data, in the 12 months ending in December 2025, food costs rose by more than 3 percent, while average hourly wages increased by only 1.1 percent year-on-year. The unemployment rate stood at 4.4 percent in December, up from 4 percent when Trump took office in January 2025.

In some speeches, Trump accurately identifies the decline in prices of certain everyday goods, including eggs and gas. The cost of eggs fell by about 21 percent in December compared to the previous year, after having been 60 percent higher during the first months of Trump's presidency. Gas prices have fallen by about four percent since January of last year.

But the cost of the average grocery basket has risen. Prices for coffee, beef, and some fruits, among other items, have increased over the past year.

Trump offers solutions in his speeches, including the tax cuts that went into effect last month that will deliver greater savings for tens of millions of families, the elimination of taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security payments, his plan to lower mortgage interest rates, his proposal to reduce housing prices and agreements with health insurance companies to lower drug prices.

Most economists expect American households and the economy as a whole to benefit from the tax cuts in the coming months. However, some told Reuters they doubt Trump's recent proposals will have a significant impact on the cost of living between now and November. Some experts warn that one of Trump's ideas—capping credit card interest rates at 10 percent for a year—could backfire, as it might restrict access to credit for low-income families.

Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee for Congress, which endorses House candidates, said that Trump and the Republicans are helping working families. He added, "Voters see that clearly, and the best is yet to come."

About 35 percent of Americans approve of Trump's overall handling of the economy, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on January 25, up slightly from 33 percent in December. However, this is significantly lower than the 42 percent who initially approved when he took office a year ago.

Falling into Biden's trap

Economic officials in previous administrations say Trump is falling into the same trap that Biden fell into in 2024 when he faced persistently high inflation.

Biden continued to claim that the US economy was strong and urged voters to look at other economic data. This strategy backfired spectacularly, and the Democrats were punished at the ballot box.

Officials agreed that it is important for presidents to show voters that they understand their economic struggles, especially in an election year.

"We certainly talked about inflation," Jared Bernstein, chairman of Biden's Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview.

He added, "What we usually did was say, 'There's a new jobs report out, and it's very strong,' and that was absolutely true. But the reality is that there wasn't much we could do with regard to price levels."