April 10 (Reuters) - Analysts say the severe blow to global oil production from the war in Iran is likely to push the oil market into a supply deficit this year, a major shift from previous forecasts that pointed to a comfortable surplus in supply.

The conflict, which began on February 28 with US and Israeli attacks on Iran, has effectively halted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil consumption passes.

Production stoppages and attacks on energy infrastructure have also led to a significant decrease in output.

Eight analysts polled by Reuters expect oil market demand to exceed supply by an average of 750,000 barrels per day this year.

A similar survey conducted in September predicted a surplus of 1.63 million barrels per day for 2026, driven largely by the OPEC+ alliance's decision to roll back some production cuts as well as strong output from other producers such as the United States, Brazil and Guyana.

The International Energy Agency said its estimates indicate that the war reduced oil supplies by about 11 million barrels per day until the end of March, while ANZ Bank indicated in a note dated April 9 that the market had effectively lost about nine million barrels per day of crude supplies.

The International Energy Agency reported that global oil supplies reached approximately 106.6 million barrels per day in January.

Analysts participating in the survey said these immediate shocks are expected to translate into a loss in production averaging 2.13 million barrels per day over the entire year.

They predicted that the market would experience its largest deficit in the second quarter, averaging around three million barrels per day, before returning to a surplus of 1.4 million in the fourth quarter.

However, analysts warn that the projected deficit could worsen depending on how long the disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz continue.

There are still restrictions on flows through the strait, with traders reporting no clear signs yet of a sustained resumption of shipments since the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday.