Introduction 2 - Gargash: The probability of America and Iran reaching an agreement is 50%
To add a background
By Maha Al-Dahhan and Jana Shqeir
DUBAI, May 22 (Reuters) - Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said on Friday that the chances of reaching an agreement between the United States and Iran are 50 percent, and stressed that any political settlement must address the root causes of unrest in the region to avoid future conflicts.
Pakistan is mediating between the United States and Iran to end the war that has battered the global economy and disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
"The chances of reaching an agreement are equal," Gargash said at the GLOBSEC global security conference in Prague. "What worries me is that the Iranians always tend to over-negotiate."
He continued, "This is nothing new. They have missed many opportunities over the years due to a tendency to overestimate the strength of their leverage. I hope they don't do that this time."
Gargash added that the region needs a political solution and that another round of fighting between the United States and Iran would only further complicate matters.
But Gargash stressed that focusing negotiations solely on reaching a ceasefire risks paving the way for future conflicts if the two sides do not address the root causes.
He said, "This is not what we are aiming for."
Iran has repeatedly targeted sites in the UAE during the crisis, including strikes on civilian infrastructure and areas near US military installations.
Emirati officials said Iranian drone and missile attacks targeted desalination plants, energy facilities, and areas in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Gargash warned that any control over the Strait of Hormuz would set a dangerous precedent by politicizing the strategic waterway and placing it under Iranian influence.
He pointed out that any changes to the status of the strait would have dangerous global consequences, including consequences for Europe, and urged European countries to view the issue as directly related to their energy security and commercial interests.
He said that the status of the Strait of Hormuz should return to what it was before the war, as an international waterway that guarantees the free flow of energy supplies, trade and maritime traffic as it had been for decades.