North American trade just became less predictable after the US declined to renew the USMCA trade deal for a 16 year extension, and that uncertainty lands squarely on logistics and freight providers that rely on cross border flows. For investors, this kind of policy tension can create both pressure and openings as companies adjust contracts, pricing, and capacity around US, Mexico, and Canada routes. This article looks at 3 stocks from our US trade exposed logistics and freight providers screener that may be affected by these shifting trade terms, and explains why they merit a closer look now.

RXO (RXO)

Overview: RXO is an asset light freight broker that connects shippers with truckload carriers and provides managed transportation, last mile delivery, and freight forwarding across the US, Canada, Mexico, Asia, and Europe, helping customers move goods efficiently without owning large truck fleets.

Operations: RXO generates about US$5.7b in annual revenue, almost all from truck transportation services, with roughly US$5.3b coming from the US and the balance from international markets.

Market Cap: US$4.6b

RXO sits at the heart of US Mexico cross border trucking, so any shake up in USMCA trade terms can quickly feed into its volumes and pricing. Its digital brokerage platform and asset light model give it room to adjust capacity and margins as flows shift. The company is still loss making and relies on higher risk external funding, which makes credit conditions and freight demand important watchpoints. Analysts expect a sharp earnings recovery and RXO continues to win recognition for cargo security and expand its use of AI driven bidding. For investors tracking how trade politics, technology, and freight cycles intersect, RXO presents a combination of growth potential and clear risks that may warrant closer attention.

RXO’s asset light model and growing use of AI bidding could be setting up a very different earnings profile than its loss making status suggests, and the tipping point may be hiding in the analyst forecasts for RXO.

Heartland Express (HTLD)

Overview: Heartland Express is a truckload carrier that moves dry van and temperature controlled freight across short, medium, and long haul routes in the US, Mexico, and Canada, serving large retailers, manufacturers, and parcel carriers under several brands including Heartland Express, Millis Transfer, Smith Transport, and CFI.

Operations: Heartland Express generates US$762.5m in annual revenue, entirely from trucking transportation services in the United States.

Market Cap: US$1.2b

Heartland Express gives you direct exposure to US truckload and US Mexico cross border lanes at a moment when trade rules are becoming less predictable, which can shift freight volumes and pricing power toward carriers that can flex capacity. The company is still reporting losses, with Q1 2026 revenue of US$176.3m and a net loss of US$4.8m, and all liabilities funded by higher risk external borrowing, so balance sheet resilience matters. Analysts have published expectations of earnings improving over the next few years and the dividend has been maintained for 92 consecutive quarters, which indicates a focus on cash discipline. With the stock trading above some valuation estimates and insiders recently selling, investors who research Heartland Express in detail may find a more nuanced risk reward profile than headlines suggest.

Heartland Express has a long dividend track record, yet the stock sits between reported losses and questions about where earnings go next. Get the fuller picture in the analyst forecasts for Heartland Express, including what current expectations may be missing.

Marten Transport (MRTN)

Overview: Marten Transport is a temperature sensitive trucking company that hauls refrigerated and dry freight for food and consumer goods shippers across the US, Mexico, and Canada, using a mix of truckload, dedicated fleets, and brokerage services.

Operations: Marten Transport generates most of its revenue from Truckload services at about US$422.7m, followed by Dedicated at roughly US$268.3m, Brokerage at about US$151.5m, plus a US$21.6m segment adjustment.

Market Cap: US$1.4b

Marten Transport stands out in this trade exposed group because it combines cross border reach with a focus on refrigerated freight that is often less discretionary and more time sensitive. The company is facing real pressures, with earnings down over the past 5 years, margins sitting near 1.7%, a high P/E multiple, and a dividend that is not well covered, all of which leave little room for error. At the same time, analysts are expecting a sharp earnings recovery, Marten recently expanded its unsecured credit facility to US$105m, and USMCA volatility could push more complex, temperature controlled freight toward experienced carriers such as Marten. This is where the potential upside starts to get interesting.

Marten Transport’s earnings pressure, thin margins, and high P/E look like a ceiling, but that mix can sometimes hide an inflection point investors are underestimating. The real twist may sit inside the analyst forecasts for Marten Transport

The three stocks covered here are just a starting point, as the full US Trade Exposed Logistics and Freight Providers screener surfaced 16 more companies with equally compelling trade related stories that could change how you think about this theme. Unlock deeper context and identify the highest conviction ideas by using Simply Wall St to filter the US Trade-Exposed Logistics and Freight Providers screener for the catalysts, balance sheet traits, and earnings narratives that matter most to you.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.