With the Iran war disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, inflation staying stubbornly high and rate hikes still on the table, many investors are questioning how much risk is really baked into today’s lofty valuations. Periods like this can punish fragile business models but also reveal sturdier ones. This article focuses on 3 large cap value stocks that screens suggest are more exposed to these shocks, and explains what that could mean for your portfolio decisions.

The three stocks below are only a sample of the opportunities screens are flagging, with the full universe turning up 14 more large cap value companies that each carry their own mix of strengths, vulnerabilities and storylines. If you want to cut straight to the wider field and focus on the ideas that best fit your risk profile and income goals, use the US Large-Cap Value Stocks screener to identify, filter and analyze the highest conviction candidates.

National Fuel Gas (NFG)

National Fuel Gas is a diversified US energy company that explores for and produces natural gas and oil, runs gas gathering systems in Appalachia, operates interstate pipelines and storage in Pennsylvania and New York, and supplies gas to retail customers in parts of New York and Pennsylvania. The largest revenue contributor is the Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment at about $1.3b, followed by the Utility segment at about $938 million and Pipeline and Storage at about $431 million, partly offset by corporate eliminations. The company has a market cap of about $7.7b.

National Fuel Gas may appeal to investors who want exposure to energy prices and inflation while still keeping an eye on balance sheet risk and income. Its vertically integrated model across upstream, pipelines and utilities supports high margins and earnings that analysts describe as high quality. At the same time, debt levels and dividend coverage call for closer scrutiny. With EPS guidance raised for 2026, a higher dividend and a planned Ohio utility acquisition that would deepen its regulated footprint, the story extends beyond value on simple P/E metrics. A key consideration is how this mix of regulated cash flows, commodity exposure and policy risk could affect the risk and reward profile of a diversified portfolio in a stressed market environment.

National Fuel Gas appears to be a situation where high-quality earnings and a higher dividend could be masking something important. Get the full context in the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Build your own income and resilience shortlist

National Fuel Gas and the two other stocks in this article all surfaced from a single Simply Wall St screen, but the real edge comes when you shape the filters yourself. Use our flexible Screener to combine valuation, balance sheet strength, risks and dividends into your own watchlist. You can also lean on any of our curated Investing Ideas for ready-made starting points.

CRH (CRH)

CRH is one of the largest building materials suppliers globally, providing aggregates, cement, asphalt, ready-mix concrete and a wide range of precast and outdoor living products used in roads, utilities and commercial and residential projects. The Americas Materials Solutions segment is the biggest revenue driver at about US$18.0b, followed by International Solutions at about US$13.6b and Americas Building Solutions at about US$7.1b. The company has a market cap of about US$66.8b.

CRH provides exposure to essential infrastructure at a time when some investors are questioning how much downside is priced into more growth-driven stocks. It is closely tied to long-term US and global spending on roads, utilities and data center related projects. Recent deals such as the Arcosa and Pisgah Stone acquisitions expand its aggregates and infrastructure footprint further. At the same time, high debt levels, reliance on public funding programs and a relatively new management team mean that execution quality and balance sheet discipline are important considerations. For investors evaluating relatively steady earnings, a modest dividend and potential benefits from buybacks, the key issue is whether CRH’s vertically integrated model and scale justify taking on those risks in a stressed market.

CRH’s scale and infrastructure exposure could be masking a very different risk reward profile than many investors assume. Review the full 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Commercial Metals (CMC)

Commercial Metals is an integrated steel recycler and producer that turns scrap metal into reinforcing bar, merchant bar, wire rod and other long steel products used in large construction projects, while also supplying fabricated rebar, mesh products and construction services. Most revenue comes from the North America Steel Group at about $6.8b, with additional contributions from the Construction Solutions Group at about $1.2b and the Europe Steel Group at about $1.0b, partly offset by intersegment sales and a small corporate line. The company has a market cap of about $8.3b.

Commercial Metals may interest you if you want value exposure to construction and infrastructure with some inflation protection from hard assets. The company combines a lower P/E than many metals peers with improving margins, an established dividend and an expanded buyback program of about $1.45b. Management is targeting higher free cash flow as Construction Solutions grows. At the same time, high debt, exposure to steel pricing cycles, higher energy costs in Europe and the risk that new capacity or weaker construction demand under prolonged high rates could pressure margins all deserve attention before deciding how it fits in a portfolio built for stressed markets.

Commercial Metals looks like a value story that could be masking something bigger around cash generation and capital returns. See how the analysis report for Commercial Metals reframes the balance between its low P/E appeal and the risks that matter next.

Curious To Seek Powerful Alternatives?

Fresh stock ideas do not stay under the radar for long. Before the next breakout gathers momentum and prices start flying, review these themed lists while it matters and act now.

• Spot companies where strong cash generation and balance sheets support staying power by scanning our curated list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (49 results) before others get caught chasing weaker stories.
• Ride structural shifts in automation and efficiency by reviewing hand picked 36 robotics and automation stocks that could benefit if spending rotates toward productivity rather than pure growth narratives.
• Position ahead of potential grid upgrades and electrification trends by assessing a focused group of 36 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks while valuations still reflect recent volatility instead of later momentum.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.