Inflation at 4.1%, shifting expectations for Fed rate moves and volatile energy prices linked to events in Iran are reshaping how investors look at US value stocks. When markets rethink what cash flows are worth under changing interest rate assumptions, some companies can stand out on traditional measures like P/E, P/B and price to cash flow. This article uses a US Value Stocks screener, built around those valuation metrics and balance sheet strength, to spotlight 3 stocks that appear positively exposed to the current mix of higher inflation, steady rates for now and lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (ASIC)

Overview: Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings is a New York based excess and surplus insurer that provides tailored property and casualty coverage, including liability, commercial property and professional lines, to small and mid sized businesses across sectors such as retail, real estate, hospitality and construction, sold primarily through brokers and small business channels in the United States.

Operations: Ategrity generates all of its approximately US$470.2 million in revenue from its insurance business in the United States.

Market Cap: US$1.06b

Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings appears in this value focused screen because it combines specialty underwriting in excess and surplus lines with a pricing approach that is built around inflation and tariff sensitive building costs, an issue that features in recent management commentary. The company is growing off a relatively focused US$470.2 million revenue base. Analysts have published views that it trades below some estimates of fair value, with a P/E near the sector average and targets that sit more than 20% above the current price. Investors need to weigh execution risk around its technology driven underwriting model and a funding mix built entirely on external borrowing. Those factors could matter most if the current inflation and rate backdrop persists.

Ategrity’s specialty underwriting tied to inflation sensitive building costs and a P/E around the sector average raises a clear question, so review the DCF valuation analysis for Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings to see what the cash flow math might be missing.

Upbound Group (UPBD)

Overview: Upbound Group is a Plano based provider of lease to own and installment based access to everyday household goods like furniture, appliances, electronics and tires, serving consumers who often do not qualify for traditional credit through its Rent A Center stores, Acima virtual leasing platform, Brigit financial health apps and operations in Mexico, Puerto Rico and the United States.

Operations: Upbound Group generates most of its revenue from Acima at about US$2.5b and Rent A Center including franchising at about US$1.9b, with smaller contributions from Brigit at about US$241.8m and Mexico at about US$83.0m.

Market Cap: US$1.14b

Upbound Group sits in an unusual spot for this value focused screen, combining a high dividend yield of about 7.9% and a mid teens P/E. Its business leans into higher for longer rates, as lease to own options can become more relevant when credit stays tight and inflation runs at 4.1%. Management commentary suggests interest expense from fewer than expected rate cuts still fits inside earnings guidance. The Amazon partnership, technology investments and Acima credit products are aimed at supporting earnings after a year in which profit margins were compressed and a large one off loss weighed on results. For investors, the trade off is between attractive value signals and debt and credit quality risks if the macro backdrop worsens further.

Upbound Group’s high dividend yield and mid teens P/E suggest investors may be overlooking how its lease to own model responds if credit stays tight, so review the analysis report for Upbound Group for the key twist to this story

Centene (CNC)

Overview: Centene is a Saint Louis based managed care company that provides government backed and commercial health insurance to under insured and uninsured individuals, mainly through Medicaid, Medicare, Affordable Care Act marketplace plans and related health services like pharmacy, behavioral health, dental and vision.

Operations: Centene generates about US$91.5b in revenue from Medicaid, US$38.8b from Medicare, US$41.4b from Commercial plans and US$5.0b from Other and eliminations, with all of its roughly US$178.3b in revenue coming from the United States.

Market Cap: US$31.1b

Centene stands out in this value screen because it combines a large US$178.3b revenue base and established cash flows with a share price that is described as trading well below some estimates of fair value, despite recent updates pointing to Medicaid margin recovery, an improved Medicare Advantage outlook and growing commercial marketplace membership. At the same time, the company is still working through the effects of past losses, high specialty drug costs, funding entirely reliant on external borrowing and ongoing policy and Medicaid rate uncertainty, all while insiders have been selling stock. For investors weighing how a resilient health insurer might respond if the Fed raises rates into 4.1% inflation, these cross currents make Centene a stock that may warrant closer attention.

Centene’s share price and Medicaid margin story look out of sync, so walk through the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign to see how government programs, specialty drug costs and insider selling might be quietly pulling in opposite directions

The three US value stocks highlighted here are just a starting point. The full US Value Stocks screener surfaces 8 more large and mid cap companies with similarly detailed narratives around valuation, balance sheet strength and macro sensitivities. Use Simply Wall St to identify, filter and analyze the specific catalysts and storylines that matter most to you, so you can focus on the highest conviction opportunities that fit your approach.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.