Blue Owl Capital (OWL) just made headlines with its latest move, taking part in a $4 billion joint venture to develop an AI-focused data center campus in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. This partnership, supporting a long-term lease for a major cloud computing player, signals that Blue Owl is doubling down on digital infrastructure aimed squarely at powering the next wave of AI workloads. For investors watching the company's evolution, this deal could mark a meaningful step in Blue Owl's strategy to secure a piece of the fast-growing market for hyperscale data centers. Even with this big announcement, Blue Owl’s share price has been a mixed bag over the past year. Although the stock has delivered a solid 13% gain over that period, it is down nearly 24% year-to-date, suggesting some turbulence as markets weigh both the firm’s high revenue growth and the risks of scaling up in such a competitive sector. Other recent milestones, like expanding its partnership with Chirisa Technology Parks to a total of $20 billion across Pennsylvania and Virginia, are painting a picture of a company betting big on digital infrastructure, but not without price volatility along the way. So in light of these moves and a rollercoaster stock performance, does Blue Owl offer real value at today’s prices, or is the market already dialed in to future growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 24.7% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, Blue Owl Capital is significantly undervalued, with its fair value estimated to be nearly 25% above current market levels. This view is heavily anchored in projections of robust future growth and profitability, supported by underlying industry trends.

Structural shifts away from traditional bank lending toward private lenders, combined with robust demand for alternative credit and asset-backed finance, are enabling large pipeline growth and high deployment opportunities. These factors are directly supporting future AUM growth and an upward trajectory in revenues.

Curious what is fueling such a bullish outlook for Blue Owl? Analysts are betting on aggressive expansion, scale advantages, and a jump in earnings efficiency to back up their bold price target. Wondering what assumptions could justify a valuation this high? Check out the full narrative for the surprising financial drivers behind this double-digit upside.

Result: Fair Value of $23.92 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, steep competition and challenges integrating recent acquisitions could easily disrupt Blue Owl's optimistic growth assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Blue Owl Capital narrative.

Another View: Looking at Price Relative to Sales

While analyst models see Blue Owl as undervalued, a market-based view using the company's price compared to its sales suggests the stock actually trades at a premium to the broader industry. Are expectations running too far ahead of reality, or is growth set to accelerate?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Blue Owl Capital to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Blue Owl Capital Narrative

If you’re not convinced by these perspectives or want to dive deeper into the numbers yourself, crafting your own view takes less than three minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Blue Owl Capital research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.