AerCap Holdings (NYSE:AER) has drawn fresh attention after reporting full year 2025 results, raising its quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share and completing sizeable share repurchases alongside new fleet moves with Frontier Group Holdings.

The recent earnings release, higher dividend and active buyback program appear to align with solid momentum in the shares, with a 90 day share price return of 13.57% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 47.34% building on a very large 5 year total shareholder return of 218.89% at a latest share price of $150.43.

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With AerCap now trading at $150.43 after a period of strong multiyear returns, bigger dividends and heavy buybacks, the key question is whether buyers are still getting a discount or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 2.1% Undervalued

At a recent price of $150.43 versus a narrative fair value of $153.67, AerCap Holdings is being framed as slightly undervalued using a 13.43% discount rate.

Recent research updates on AerCap highlight a cluster of higher price targets, with analysts largely focused on credit conditions, aircraft supply and demand, and how management deploys capital over the next few years.

Several reports point to a multi year supply and demand imbalance in narrowbody and widebody aircraft, which they see as a key support for lease rates, utilization, and ultimately earnings power.

Want to understand why a company with forecast earnings declines still lands at a higher fair value than today’s price? The narrative leans heavily on tight aircraft supply, firm lease pricing, and a future earnings multiple that sits below many peers yet still lifts intrinsic value. Curious which revenue and margin assumptions are doing the heavy lifting in that model, and how much relies on continued capital returns via buybacks and dividends? The full story connects those moving parts into one valuation case.

Result: Fair Value of $153.67 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this depends on tight aircraft supply and disciplined capital deployment. An oversupplied leasing market or weaker client finances could quickly challenge that story.

Next Steps

Feeling torn between the bullish and cautious points in this story? Act now to review the data yourself, including 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs, and decide where you stand.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.