Badger Meter (BMI) is back in focus after a securities fraud investigation was launched, following its disclosure of lower first quarter 2026 sales and allegations regarding statements on product demand and growth prospects.

Badger Meter's share price has been volatile around the fraud probe and weaker first quarter 2026 sales, with a 7 day share price return of 3.58% but a year to date share price return down 32.45%. The 5 year total shareholder return of 32.56% contrasts with a 1 year total shareholder return that has declined 51.39%, suggesting recent momentum has faded compared with the longer run.

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With Badger Meter shares down sharply over the past year but trading only slightly below one estimate of intrinsic value and below some analyst targets, investors may reasonably ask whether there is genuine value available or whether the market is already fully pricing in the company’s potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 33.1% Undervalued

Badger Meter's most followed narrative points to a fair value of $178.0 against the last close of $119.16, highlighting a sizable valuation gap driven by expectations for steady growth and stronger profitability over time.

The rapid expansion and integration of IoT-enabled products and real-time analytics, as seen in the rollout of BEACON and new machine-learning-enabled products like Cobalt, are accelerating customer adoption of recurring, higher-margin software and data solutions, contributing to improved revenue visibility and ongoing net margin enhancement.

Curious what kind of revenue pace, margin lift, and future earnings multiple are baked into that fair value? The narrative leans on ambitious, quantified assumptions and a specific discount rate to bridge today’s price to that target.

Result: Fair Value of $178.00 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on continued utility project funding and Badger Meter keeping input costs and SG&A in check, as those pressures could quickly erode today’s optimism.

Next Steps

Given the mix of concern and optimism in this story, it makes sense to check the data for yourself and decide where you stand. A quick way to start is by reviewing the 3 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.