Bilibili (BILI) stock has recently drawn investor attention after a period of weaker share performance, with the price down 19% over the past month and 34% over the past 3 months from Wednesday’s close.

Across the past year, Bilibili’s share price return has been weak in the near term, with the stock down over the past quarter, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 14.54% highlights a more mixed longer term picture. This suggests recent momentum is fading as investors reassess growth prospects and risks around the current US$20.32 share price.

If Bilibili’s recent swings have you rethinking where to focus next, it could be a good moment to look at other growth stories through 39 AI infrastructure stocks.

With Bilibili’s share price under pressure recently, yet showing a 1-year total return in positive territory and trading at what appears to be a sizeable discount to some valuation estimates, is there genuine upside left, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 34.5% Undervalued

Based on the most followed narrative, Bilibili’s fair value sits at $31.00 compared with the recent $20.32 close. This sets up a valuation gap that relies heavily on future engagement and earnings growth.

The expansion and monetization of Bilibili's creator ecosystem is creating new revenue streams through value-added services (memberships, fan charging, e-commerce), tapping into the rising demand for user-generated content and the growth of the creator economy; this supports higher ARPU and margin improvement.

Curious what kind of revenue path, margin profile, and earnings multiple have to come together to back that fair value? The narrative leans on accelerating profitability, richer monetization per user, and a premium future earnings multiple that assumes Bilibili keeps turning engagement into cash flow at scale.

Result: Fair Value of $31.00 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on a concentrated China Gen Z audience and tight content rules. Shifting tastes or tougher regulation could quickly challenge that upbeat valuation story.

Another View: Multiples Point To Rich Pricing

While the SWS fair value model suggests Bilibili is trading at a large discount, its current P/E of 48.1x looks expensive against the US Interactive Media and Services industry at 15.1x, peers at 21.6x, and a fair ratio of 28.3x. That gap raises a simple question: is the narrative too generous, or are multiples missing something?

Next Steps

If the mix of optimism and caution across these narratives feels familiar, take it as a prompt to move quickly and pressure test the numbers yourself. To better understand why some investors remain optimistic about Bilibili, review its 4 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.