Blackstone stock after recent performance

Blackstone (BX) has drawn fresh attention after a period where the share price showed a 4.6% gain over the past day but declines over the past week, month and past 3 months.

That 4.6% 1 day share price gain to $106.78 comes after a weaker spell, with 30 day and year to date share price returns of 20% and 32.8% declines. However, the 3 year total shareholder return of 38.1% and 5 year total shareholder return of 74.8% show that longer term holders have still seen meaningful gains. This suggests that recent weakness may reflect a reset in market expectations and perceived risk around Blackstone rather than the whole story changing.

If Blackstone's recent swings have you thinking about where else capital could work, it might be a good moment to scan 18 top founder-led companies for fresh ideas beyond large established managers.

With Blackstone trading at $106.78 and references to both analyst targets and intrinsic value suggesting a discount, the real question is whether you are looking at a genuine mispricing or a stock that already reflects its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 34.2% Undervalued

With Blackstone last closing at $106.78 against a narrative fair value of $162.26, the gap is wide enough that the underlying story matters.

Blackstone is positioned for strong future growth with high inflows and substantial capital for opportunistic investments in undervalued assets. The firm is well-positioned to benefit from market dislocation with $177 billion of dry powder available for opportunistic investments, potentially increasing future earnings as capital is deployed in undervalued assets.

Curious how a business with meaningful dry powder, expanding credit platforms and a growing wealth channel supports that valuation gap? The narrative focuses on compounding revenue, rising margins and a different earnings mix a few years out. If you want to see exactly how those moving parts connect to that fair value, the full narrative lays it out in detail.

Result: Fair Value of $162.26 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on Blackstone managing BCRED redemption pressure, as well as broader tariff and trade risks that could affect real estate values and fee related earnings.

Another View: What The P/E Ratio Says

The cash flow based fair value of $128.49 suggests Blackstone is undervalued at $106.78. However, the 27.7x P/E is higher than both the US Capital Markets industry at 22x and the 23.4x fair ratio. That pricing gap points to higher valuation risk, so which signal do you trust more?

Next Steps

The article so far paints a mixed picture, so if you want more than headlines, it is worth checking the full risk and reward balance for yourself through 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.