How Boyd Gaming stock has been performing

Boyd Gaming (BYD) has moved in different directions over recent periods, with the stock down 0.6% over the past day but higher over the past week, month and past 3 months.

Over the past week the stock is up 6.3%, while the month shows a 2.6% gain and the past 3 months show a 9.2% rise. Year to date, Boyd Gaming is up 1.9%, and over the past year the total return stands at 19.7%.

Looking further back, the stock shows a 32.4% total return over 3 years and 46.1% over 5 years. These figures give you a rough sense of how the stock has rewarded long term holders compared with more recent moves.

Recent share price action at $87.87, with a 7 day share price return of 6.3% and a 90 day share price return of 9.2%, suggests momentum has been building. The 1 year total shareholder return of 19.7% highlights how recent gains fit into a stronger medium term picture.

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After a solid run over the past year and a recent cluster of positive returns, the key question for you is whether Boyd Gaming at about $87.87 still offers value or if the stock already reflects future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 6.3% Undervalued

Analysts who follow Boyd Gaming see fair value at about $93.73 per share compared with the recent $87.87 close, and build that view around a detailed set of revenue, earnings and capital return assumptions.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $93.73 for Boyd Gaming based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $110.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $81.0.

Want to understand what kind of revenue path, margin reset and future earnings multiple are needed to support that price target and discount rate? The core of this narrative is a sharp swing in profitability coupled with a much higher valuation multiple than the wider hospitality sector. Curious how those ingredients fit together to reach that fair value and whether the implied earnings power looks achievable on your numbers?

Result: Fair Value of $93.73 (UNDERVALUED)

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Another View on Boyd Gaming's Valuation

The analyst target of $93.73 points to Boyd Gaming being about 6.3% above the recent $87.87 price. However, the Simply Wall St DCF model puts fair value closer to $53.07, which suggests the stock is trading well above its modeled future cash flow value. Which story do you trust more: the cash flows or the price target?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Boyd Gaming for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 49 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and caution feels familiar, that is the point. Markets rarely tell a one sided story. To judge Boyd Gaming on your own terms, weigh the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.