Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is back in focus after first quarter 2026 results showed revenue of US$4.92b and a narrowed net loss of US$237 million, supported by higher steel prices and firm automotive demand.

The latest earnings and commentary on full order books and resilient steel demand sit against a mixed share price picture, with a 9.39% 1 month share price return, a 39.76% 3 month share price decline, and a 14.92% 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests that momentum has been choppy rather than moving in a single direction.

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With revenue at US$4.92b, a narrowed quarterly loss and a share price that has fallen 40% over three months but still delivers a positive 1 year return, should you see Cleveland-Cliffs as undervalued, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 30.5% Undervalued

With Cleveland-Cliffs last closing at $9.09 and the most followed fair value estimate sitting at $13.08 based on a 12.33% discount rate, the narrative centers on whether current earnings weakness aligns with longer term tariff support and auto demand.

Sustained enforcement and recent increases of U.S. steel tariffs have materially reduced imports, driving higher domestic demand and pricing power for Cleveland-Cliffs. This, along with reshoring in automotive and appliances, positions the company to benefit from greater sales volumes and improved revenue visibility as protectionist trade policy endures.

Want to see what kind of revenue path and margin reset would support that higher fair value tag? The narrative leans heavily on earnings rebuilding, richer product mix and a lower future earnings multiple than many peers. Curious how those moving parts combine into one valuation story that still points above the current share price.

Result: Fair Value of $13.08 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the case can quickly weaken if U.S. steel tariffs are eased or if Cleveland-Cliffs' heavy reliance on higher cost blast furnace assets starts to pressure margins.

Another Take: DCF Says Overvalued

Analysts lean on earnings and multiples to argue Cleveland-Cliffs could be 30.5% undervalued at a fair value of $13.08, yet the Simply Wall St DCF model points in the opposite direction. On that view, the current $9.09 share price sits above an estimated future cash flow value of $5.90, which implies overvaluation rather than a margin of safety. Which set of assumptions do you think tells the more realistic story about cash generation?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Cleveland-Cliffs for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 54 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With both bullish and cautious views in play, it makes sense to move quickly and check the underlying numbers yourself so you can decide where you stand based on 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.