Buyback expansion puts Commerce Bancshares’ capital plans in focus

Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) has expanded its share repurchase authorization, with the board lifting the remaining capacity to 7,500,000 shares as of April 28, 2026, putting fresh attention on the stock’s capital return profile.

At a share price of US$51.89, Commerce Bancshares has seen a 30 day share price return of 2.79%. However, the share price is down 5.50% over 90 days and the 1 year total shareholder return has declined 15.35%. As a result, recent buyback news arrives against a backdrop of fading momentum after a stronger 3 year total shareholder return of 27.95%.

If this kind of capital return story has your attention, it can be useful to broaden your watchlist and check out 19 top founder-led companies

With the stock down over 1 year but higher over 3 years, along with a larger buyback and an estimated 46% intrinsic discount, the key question is simple: is this a buying opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Price to earnings of 13.4x: Is it justified?

On Simply Wall St’s numbers, Commerce Bancshares looks inexpensive on a discounted cash flow basis, with the SWS DCF model pointing to a fair value of $96.85 compared with a last close of $51.89, even though the P/E of 13.4x sits above the US Banks industry average of 11.4x and above an estimated fair P/E of 11.5x.

The P/E multiple captures what investors are currently paying for each dollar of Commerce Bancshares’ earnings, which matters a lot for a bank that already earns a 13.5% return on equity and has high quality earnings. For a stock with forecast earnings growth of 3.2% a year and revenue growth of 6.1% a year, a richer P/E than the wider banks industry suggests the market is willing to pay up for the earnings profile, even though those growth rates are described as slower than both the US market and the 20% threshold sometimes used for high growth.

Compared with peers, Commerce Bancshares trades at a P/E of 13.4x against a peer average of 15.9x. This points to a lower earnings multiple than similar companies, while still being above both the US Banks industry average of 11.4x and the estimated fair P/E of 11.5x that the fair ratio suggests the market could move towards if sentiment cools. For an investor weighing the expanded buyback and a 2.12% dividend, this mix of a DCF discount, a below peer average P/E, and a premium to both industry and fair ratio levels frames a nuanced valuation picture.

Result: Price-to-earnings of 13.4x (ABOUT RIGHT)

However, the 5 year total shareholder return is down 9.37%, and the stock trades below analyst price targets, so sentiment or business conditions could weaken the buyback story.

Another view on what the price might be missing

While the current P/E of 13.4x sits above the US Banks industry at 11.4x and above the 11.5x fair ratio, the SWS DCF model indicates an estimated fair value of $96.85 compared to a market price of $51.89, which suggests the stock may be trading at a steep discount.

This kind of gap between an earnings-based multiple and a cash flow-based estimate can signal either a genuine opportunity or that the market is concerned about the assumptions behind those cash flows. Which side do you think is closer to reality?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Commerce Bancshares for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 50 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment mixed across valuation and capital returns, it helps to move quickly, review the full data set, and decide what matters most for you. To understand the potential upside that others are focused on, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards

Looking for more investment ideas?

If this discussion has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Broaden your opportunity set now so you are not relying on just one stock story.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning 50 high quality undervalued stocks that combine quality fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect them.
• Strengthen your income focus by reviewing 12 dividend fortresses that aim to pair higher yields with resilient business models.
• Dial down volatility risk by filtering for 71 resilient stocks with low risk scores that show more stable risk profiles compared with many individual stocks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.