Duke Energy (DUK) stock is in focus after South Carolina regulators approved a new natural gas plant in Anderson County, the company’s first new generation facility in the state in a decade.

The approval for the Anderson County plant comes as Duke Energy’s share price has a 90 day share price return of 10.93% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 12.71%. The 3 year total shareholder return of 51.47% and 5 year total shareholder return of 63.93% indicate momentum has been building over time.

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With Duke Energy’s shares up more than 10% over the past 90 days and trading at about a 6% discount to the average analyst price target, the key question is whether there is still value on the table or if markets are already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 6% Undervalued

With Duke Energy last closing at $129.99 against a narrative fair value of $138.29, the latest consensus view points to modest upside and leans heavily on long term infrastructure and data center power demand.

Major economic development wins (e.g., AWS's $10B data center in North Carolina), paired with accelerated migration and manufacturing demand in Duke's service territory, are expected to drive robust, multi-year load and volume growth, supporting higher revenues and long-term EPS growth.

Curious what earnings path and margin profile sit behind this valuation gap? The narrative leans on steady revenue expansion, firmer profitability and a richer future earnings multiple. The full model shows how those ingredients combine into that $138.29 fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $138.29 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this depends on data center and load growth actually materializing. At the same time, higher capital needs and potential regulatory shifts could pressure returns and weaken the current narrative.

Another Angle On Duke Energy’s Valuation

The narrative fair value points to Duke Energy looking 6% undervalued, but the SWS DCF model paints a very different picture, with an estimate of future cash flow value at $77.82 per share versus the current $129.99, implying the stock screens as expensive on that lens. Which story do you find more convincing?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Duke Energy for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 61 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

The mix of potential upside and flagged concerns in this story makes it worth checking the numbers yourself and forming a clear view. To see both sides laid out in one place, review the 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.