Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV) is back in focus after announcing an agreement with Eskom to roll out long duration gravity energy storage systems across Southern Africa, alongside recent earnings and guidance updates.

The Eskom agreement and reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance have arrived alongside sharp share price momentum, with a 90 day share price return of 90.38% and a very large 1 year total shareholder return, although the 5 year total shareholder return remains negative.

If you are looking beyond Energy Vault to other grid and storage related opportunities, this is a good moment to scan 37 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With the stock up strongly in recent months, revenue increasing and losses widening, and the share price now close to analyst targets, investors face a simple question: is there still a buying opportunity here, or has the market already priced in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 42% Overvalued

At a last close of $5.94 against a narrative fair value of $4.18, the most followed view implies the stock is already pricing in a lot of optimism.

The market appears to be pricing in significant recurring EBITDA growth over the next few years, driven by expectations that newly announced Asset Vault projects and a $300M preferred equity investment will unlock over $1 billion in CapEx and rapidly scale up owned and operated storage assets. However, actual project execution and timely commercialization may face delays or operational risks, which could impact future revenue and ultimately leave earnings below current optimistic projections.

Curious what underpins that valuation gap? Revenue ramps, margin shifts, and a future earnings multiple all sit at the core of this story.

This widely followed narrative is built on a detailed model that ties expected revenue growth, margin normalisation and a specific discount rate of 9.51% into one fair value line. It also lays out how recurring cash flows from Asset Vault projects, long term service contracts and a rising share count could interact with the analyst price target range and the current share price.

Result: Fair Value of $4.18 (OVERVALUED)

However, there are also clear swing factors, including the US$300 million preferred equity backing large Asset Vault projects, as well as the growing backlog and project pipeline.

Next Steps

With mixed signals across valuation, growth expectations and project execution risk, you can move quickly and weigh both sides for yourself by using 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.