Expedia Group (EXPE) is back in focus after a packed Q1 2026 update, combining earnings, fresh guidance, a new US$5b buyback plan and a US$0.48 quarterly dividend declaration.

Despite a sharp 1 day share price drop of 9.02% and a year to date share price decline of 18.72%, Expedia Group still carries a 1 year total shareholder return of 38.63% and a 3 year total shareholder return of about 15x. This suggests that recent volatility sits against a much stronger multi year run that investors are reassessing in light of fresh guidance, the buyback plan and dividend.

If the recent earnings moves have you thinking about where else growth and risk might be shifting, it could be a good moment to scan 19 top founder-led companies

With the stock down this year but still carrying a strong 1 year return, solid Q1 numbers, fresh revenue guidance, a US$5b buyback and a recurring dividend, is this a reset that offers upside or is future growth already in the price?

Most Popular Narrative: 33.5% Undervalued

Expedia Group's fair value in the leading narrative sits at $345.94 versus a last close of $229.98. This points to a sizeable valuation gap that hinges on how its travel ecosystem evolves from here.

As travel becomes more intentional and experience-led, platforms that help people plan better, not just faster, may be positioned to benefit. Expedia’s broad ecosystem, improving technology, and focus on discovery could support that next phase.

The narrative behind that valuation gap emphasizes experience-driven travel, margin-focused technology efficiency, and a long-term shift in how trips are planned and booked.

Result: Fair Value of $345.94 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this storyline could be challenged if travel demand softens, or if competitors in search and alternative accommodations capture more booking share than expected.

Another View: What Earnings Multiples Are Saying

That 33.5% undervaluation story is based on a fair value of $345.94. On earnings, the picture is less clear cut. Expedia Group trades on a P/E of 18.6x, slightly above its peer average of 17.5x, yet still below the estimated fair ratio of 30.1x.

In practice, that means the stock is not cheap relative to close peers, but the fair ratio suggests the market could still shift toward paying more for each dollar of earnings if confidence in the story holds. The question for you is whether current expectations already bake in enough of that optimism.

Next Steps

If this mix of confidence and caution around Expedia Group feels familiar, use it as a prompt to review the numbers, pressure test the narratives and weigh both sides of the story using 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas?

Once you have formed a view on Expedia Group, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist with a few focused screens that highlight different strengths across the market.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning companies that screen as high quality and attractively priced through the 49 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Strengthen your income focus by reviewing stocks that appear in the 12 dividend fortresses, where yields sit from 5% and above.
• Lower portfolio stress by checking companies that show up in the 71 resilient stocks with low risk scores, with resilience scores designed to help you sleep a little easier.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.