Why earnings expectations and a new Pacsun tie up matter for Formula One Group (FWON.K)

Analysts recently lifted earnings estimates for Formula One Group (FWON.K) ahead of its 7 May 2026 report, and Pacsun’s latest FORMULA 1 MIAMI GRAND PRIX collection spotlights the brand’s reach with younger fans.

Despite the near term excitement around earnings and brand collaborations like the Pacsun Miami collection, Formula One Group’s share price return has been mixed. It has a recent 1-day share price return of 2.32% and a year to date share price return decline of 10.30%, while its 5-year total shareholder return of 105.65% points to stronger longer run compounding.

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With FWON.K trading at US$87.94, a 29.63% discount to the average analyst price target and only a small gap to one intrinsic value estimate, is this a rare entry point, or is the market already banking on future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 64.8% Overvalued

According to alegget, the most followed narrative puts Formula One Group’s fair value at $53.37, well below the recent $87.94 close, which creates a sharp valuation gap the market has yet to close.

And that is the core narrative: at the moment, Formula One is riding high and arguably the most popular it has ever been. But this popularity, the movies, the Netflix shows, are hiding real questions bubbling underneath the surface about what actually is Formula One, and the answers to that question can have a real impact on what Formula One looks like in the future, for better or worse.

Curious how a business growing revenue and earnings still lands on such a steep discount rate and rich implied profit multiple? The narrative leans heavily on specific assumptions about future growth, margins and what investors may be willing to pay for those earnings over time. The full storyline connects today’s popularity with a very different long term valuation picture.

Result: Fair Value of $53.37 (OVERVALUED)

However, if driver pushback eases or the new rules sharpen on-track competition, that could keep the brand strong and blunt the overvaluation argument.

Another View: What the P/E Ratio Is Signalling

The community narrative leans on a $53.37 fair value, yet the current P/E of 37x tells a different story. FWON.K trades richer than the US Entertainment industry at 29x and well above a 21.2x fair ratio, which points to meaningful valuation risk if sentiment cools.

For anyone weighing that risk against the growth story and recent analyst optimism, it helps to see how the numbers stack up side by side in our valuation breakdown: See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and concern feels finely balanced, take a closer look at the details now and weigh the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.