Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) reported first quarter 2026 results, with sales of US$3,881 million and a net loss of US$249 million, as tyre volumes and input costs weighed on performance.

At a share price of US$6.86, Goodyear’s 1 day share price return of 6.03% decline and 7 day share price return of 3.11% decline came after the first quarter loss and ongoing cost pressures. The 1 year total shareholder return of 37.29% decline underlines that momentum has been weak over a longer period.

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With a share price well below analyst targets and multi year total returns deeply negative, Goodyear looks beaten up on recent numbers. The real question is whether this reflects a genuine reset or if the stock is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 23.3% Undervalued

Goodyear’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at US$8.94 per share compared with the last close of US$6.86. This frames the current price as a discount that hinges on future execution.

The asset sales (OTR, Dunlop, and Chemical business) and strong progress on deleveraging are expected to yield a significantly improved balance sheet and lower interest burden, enhancing Goodyear's ability to reinvest in growth, drive earnings accretion, and reduce financial risk.

Curious what earnings path, revenue profile, and margin recovery need to line up for that fair value to make sense? The narrative leans on a long runway to profitability and a future earnings multiple that sits below the wider auto components peer group, built around detailed assumptions that are not obvious just from recent losses and weak returns. The tension between today’s loss making status and those future profit expectations is where the full story gets interesting.

Result: Fair Value of US$8.94 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are still clear risks, including weaker commercial truck tire demand and rising tariff and manufacturing costs, which could pressure margins and challenge the underpriced thesis.

Another Way To Look At Value

The analyst narrative sees Goodyear as 23.3% undervalued at a fair value of US$8.94, but the SWS DCF model points the other way. On that view, the current US$6.86 share price sits above an estimated future cash flow value of US$4.01, which flags possible downside instead of upside. Which set of assumptions do you think lines up better with how Goodyear actually earns cash over time?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Goodyear Tire & Rubber for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With mixed signals across fair value estimates, earnings, and recent returns, now is a good time to look through the data yourself and decide where you stand. Then, go deeper into the balance of risks and potential rewards by checking out the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you stop with just one stock, you could miss other opportunities that fit your goals even better, so give yourself options and widen your watchlist.

• Spot potential turnaround stories early by scanning 25 elite penny stocks with strong financials that already show strong financials instead of just interesting headlines.
• Zero in on quality at a discount by checking the 51 high quality undervalued stocks that blend healthier cash flows with sturdier balance sheets.
• Strengthen the defensive side of your portfolio by reviewing the 72 resilient stocks with low risk scores that aim for resilience when conditions get choppy.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.