Market context around the Putnam Leasing partnership trigger

The new three way partnership between Putnam Leasing, Hagerty (HGTY) and Broad Arrow brings leasing into Hagerty’s collector car ecosystem, aligning financing, insurance and auctions in a single, more integrated ownership journey for clients.

Hagerty’s partnerships with Putnam Leasing and Agero arrive while the share price sits at US$10.09, with the stock down 23.27% on a year to date share price return, but posting a 1 year total shareholder return of 1% and a 3 year total shareholder return of about 5%. This suggests that recent news is being weighed against a longer track record of modestly positive investor outcomes.

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With Hagerty shares at US$10.09, recent returns mixed and partnerships aiming to deepen its collector car ecosystem, the key question is whether the stock still trades below its potential or if the market already reflects expectations for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 32.7% Undervalued

Hagerty’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $15.00 compared with the last close at $10.09, framing the current price against a much higher long term earnings story.

The shift toward Hagerty Re retaining 100% of the underwriting risk on the U.S. book, combined with an 87% combined ratio and a 77% rise in adjusted EBITDA to US$85 million in Q1 2026, points to greater control over insurance economics that can support higher earnings and cash flow over time.

Want to see what kind of revenue growth, margin expansion and earnings trajectory are baked into that fair value? The key assumptions behind this story are far more aggressive than the headline P/E might suggest, and they rest on very specific forecasts for underwriting profitability, membership monetisation and marketplace income.

Result: Fair Value of $15.00 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the story can change quickly if collector car values cool or if Hagerty Re’s full risk retention leads to a higher combined ratio and weaker margins.

Another View: What the P/E ratio is saying

While the most popular narrative frames Hagerty as 32.7% undervalued at a fair value of $15.00, the current P/E of 39.6x tells a different story. It sits above both the US Insurance industry at 10.6x and peers at 27.2x, and even above a fair ratio of 36.1x. This suggests the market may already be paying up for earnings expectations.

For anyone weighing these signals against the growth story, the question is whether this valuation gap reflects justified optimism or leaves less room for error if the narrative does not fully play out.

Next Steps

If the mix of optimism and caution in this story feels familiar, do not wait too long to stress test the details and form your own stance. Then round out your view by checking 3 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.