Hayward Holdings (HAYW) drew fresh attention after reporting first quarter results, with sales of US$255.22 million and net income of US$23.36 million, alongside higher full year 2026 sales and earnings guidance.

Despite the stronger first quarter and higher 2026 guidance, Hayward Holdings’ 1-day and 7-day share price returns of 1.01% and 1.60% contrast with a 9.08% 1-month gain, while 1-year and 3-year total shareholder returns of 5.12% and 31.99% point to momentum built over a longer horizon.

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The stock now trades at US$14.77, with both analyst targets and intrinsic estimates implying a mid teens discount. The key question is whether this signals a genuine buying opportunity or if the market already reflects future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 14.9% Undervalued

With Hayward Holdings trading at $14.77 against a narrative fair value of $17.36, the current price sits below what this widely followed framework suggests.

Operational efficiency and supply chain optimization, particularly the rapid reduction of China-sourced goods and expanded US manufacturing, are expected to lower input costs, derisk future margin exposure, and drive ongoing gross margin expansion.

Want to see what sits behind that margin story? The narrative connects steady top line growth, higher profit margins, and a richer earnings multiple. The full set of assumptions shows how those elements combine into the $17.36 fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $17.36 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there is still a risk that Hayward’s heavy reliance on the residential aftermarket and competitive pricing pressure could limit both revenue and margin ambitions embedded in this narrative.

Next Steps

Given the mix of optimism and concern in this story, now is a good moment to look through the details yourself and decide how the balance of risks and rewards stacks up for your portfolio. You can start with 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.