Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) is back in focus after issuing preliminary, unaudited 2025 revenue figures that point to double digit growth, updating its 2026 outlook, and appointing Matt Osberg as its new Chief Financial Officer.

Despite the fresh guidance and CFO appointment, momentum in Inspire Medical Systems' shares has cooled recently. The 1 month share price return shows a 22% decline and the 7 day share price return shows a 6.3% decline, even as the 3 month share price return of 18.2% gain contrasts with a 1 year total shareholder return of 48.1% loss.

If this kind of mixed sentiment around medtech growth stories has your attention, it could be a good moment to scan other healthcare stocks for comparison.

With revenue guidance pointing to ongoing double digit growth, while the share price has pulled back and sits well below published analyst targets, is Inspire Medical Systems now an underappreciated medtech name, or is the market already pricing in that future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 34.2% Undervalued

With Inspire Medical Systems last closing at US$92.23 against a narrative fair value of US$140.13, the gap in expectations is clear and sets the tone for how future growth, margins and reimbursement are being framed.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $144.533 for Inspire Medical Systems based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $230.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $97.0.

Curious what kind of revenue ramp, margin lift and premium P/E multiple need to line up to support that valuation gap? The full narrative lays it out clearly.

Result: Fair Value of $140.13 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you still need to weigh the risk that Inspire V rollout challenges, along with shifting reimbursement or GLP 1 trends, could cap procedure volumes and pressure margins.

Another View on Valuation

Those narrative fair value figures point to upside, but the SWS DCF model tells a different story. On that approach, Inspire Medical Systems at US$92.23 is trading above an estimated fair value of US$69.71, which screens as overvalued. Which set of assumptions do you trust more?

Build Your Own Inspire Medical Systems Narrative

If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Inspire Medical Systems research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.