Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) is in focus after a busy stretch, with Q4 2025 results exceeding earnings and revenue expectations, encouraging hereditary angioedema trial data, and an FDA clinical hold lifted on its partnered gene editing drug.

At a share price of $13.42, Intellia has seen a 49.28% 90 day share price return and a 45.71% year to date share price return. However, the 3 year total shareholder return of a 69.49% decline shows that momentum has only recently turned more positive, supported by the Q4 earnings beat, progress in hereditary angioedema trials, and the lifting of the FDA clinical hold on its partnered program.

If gene editing headlines have your attention, this could be a good moment to broaden your biotech watchlist and review our screener of 30 healthcare AI stocks.

With the stock at $13.42, a sharp 90 day rebound sits against a much weaker 3 year record, and analyst targets and intrinsic estimates point to a large gap. Is Intellia still mispriced, or is the market already baking in future success?

Most Popular Narrative: 92.3% Undervalued

With Intellia at $13.42 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value near $174, the gap between market price and that view is hard to ignore.

Phase 3 results have a high probability of success. Strong Phase 2 foundation: In the Phase 2 trial, the 50 mg dose (the dose used in Phase 3) achieved an 81% reduction in mean monthly attacks (Weeks 5 to 16) and a 77% reduction overall. Complete response rate: Perhaps most importantly for your "functional cure" assessment, 73% of Phase 2 patients (8 out of 11) in the 50 mg arm were completely attack-free through the primary observation period. Dose-dependent biomarker correlation: There is a clear, linear relationship between the CRISPR edit and the biomarker. The 50 mg dose led to an 86% mean reduction in plasma kallikrein, which has remained stable for up to 3 years in follow-up studies. Historically, orphan drug candidates that enter Phase 3 with the kind of "clean" Phase 2 data Intellia has produced have a 70% to 85% chance of regulatory approval. Valuation modeling: Using a Price-to-Sales (P/S) model for Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), reaching $2 billion in annual sales (roughly 25 to 30% of the projected 2030 market) could support a stock price ranging from $86.35 (conservative 5x P/S) to a base case using a standard biotech P/S of 10x and a market cap of $20 billion (2 billion × 10). Estimated stock price: $172.71, contingent upon the success of the ongoing Phase 3 HAELO trial.

Want to see how this view gets to a fair value near $174? The story leans heavily on one program, ambitious revenue build up and premium margins. Curious which assumptions really carry the weight in that model?

Result: Fair Value of $173.99 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this story still hinges on a single Phase 3 outcome and ambitious revenue assumptions, so any trial setback or slower uptake could quickly challenge the thesis.

Another View: Rich Multiples Versus Fair Ratio

That user narrative leans on future revenue and a generous P/S multiple, but the current picture tells a different story. At around 27x sales, Intellia trades well above the US Biotechs average of 12.5x and the peer average of 17.5x, while our fair ratio points to 0x.

In plain terms, the market price already implies a very full revenue story. However, the fair ratio suggests the P/S multiple could move sharply lower over time instead of higher. For you as an investor, is that a margin of safety or a valuation risk you are willing to live with?

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly split between a big upside story and meaningful risk, it makes sense to move quickly and test the numbers yourself, including how the company’s mix of 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs fits with your own risk tolerance and return expectations.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If this story has you thinking bigger about your portfolio, do not stop at one stock. Use focused screens to hunt for ideas that truly fit your style.

• Target quality at a discount by checking companies our screener tags as 53 high quality undervalued stocks that pair fundamentals with appealing prices.
• Prioritise staying power by reviewing businesses in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (41 results) that put balance sheet strength front and center.
• Lock in potential portfolio anchors by scanning income opportunities in the 15 dividend fortresses that focus on higher yielding payers.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.