What triggered the latest move in Laureate Education?

Laureate Education (LAUR) is back in focus after third quarter 2024 results came in ahead of guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA, supported by new enrollments in Peru and steady contributions from Mexico.

The company also raised its constant currency outlook for full year 2024 revenue and adjusted EBITDA, while announcing a new US$100 million stock repurchase program alongside comments on its balance sheet and approach to returning capital.

Despite a 1-day share price decline of 0.83% and a 12.41% decline over 30 days, Laureate Education’s 1-year total shareholder return of 56.99% and 5-year total shareholder return of 384.44% point to strong longer term momentum that recent weakness has not erased.

If this earnings-driven move has you thinking about where else growth stories may be taking shape, it could be a good moment to scan 19 top founder-led companies

With a 1 year total shareholder return of 56.99%, a 5 year return above 3x, and the shares trading about 29% below the average analyst price target, is there still a buying opportunity here, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 21.7% Undervalued

Laureate Education’s most followed narrative puts fair value at $39.58 per share versus the last close of $30.99, framing the current pullback as a valuation gap rather than a complete rerating.

Ongoing expansion into high-growth Latin American markets (Mexico, Peru) through new campus openings and targeted capacity investments leverages rising demand for private tertiary education, which is likely to drive sustained enrollment and revenue growth over the next several years. Strong momentum in digital learning, particularly the expansion of fully online degree programs for working adults in both Mexico and Peru, broadens Laureate's addressable market and supports accelerated top-line growth by attracting non-traditional students beyond the core undergraduate base.

Want to see how that expansion story translates into the $39.58 figure? The narrative leans on measured growth in revenue, firm profit margins and a future earnings multiple that sits below many current market comparisons. The mix of campus and online programs is central to those assumptions. The full breakdown shows exactly how those moving parts combine into the implied upside.

Result: Fair Value of $39.58 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on Mexico and Peru remaining supportive markets, and heavy campus investment or online price pressure could quickly challenge those fair value assumptions.

Next Steps

Given the mix of optimism and concern running through this story, it makes sense to check the numbers yourself and decide quickly where you stand, starting with 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.