MINISO Group Holding (MNSO) is back in focus after reporting first quarter 2026 earnings, with revenue and net income figures that outpaced both internal guidance and analyst expectations, despite pressure on gross margins.

Despite the upbeat first quarter report, MINISO Group Holding's recent share price performance has been weak, with the stock down 30.24% on a 90 day share price return and the 1 year total shareholder return falling 25.72%. This suggests enthusiasm has cooled even as investors reassess growth and risk.

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So, with earnings beating guidance but margins under pressure and the stock down sharply over the past year, are you looking at an undervalued retailer or at a business where the market is already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 54.3% Undervalued

According to the most followed narrative on Simply Wall St, MINISO Group Holding's fair value of $27.52 sits well above the latest close at $12.57, which is driving a strong undervaluation view from that community.

Given these factors, it would not be unreasonable to see revenue more than double in the next five years, potentially reaching the RMB 25-30 billion range, driven primarily by the compounding effect of overseas store expansion and enhanced store productivity.

Assuming revenue doubles and the adjusted net margin expands from its current ~16-17% level to around 20% due to these factors, adjusted net earnings could potentially triple over the next five years.

Want to see what sits behind that bold revenue roadmap and earnings ramp according to Bejgal's narrative? The store rollout pace, margin profile, and overseas mix assumptions are all laid out in detail, along with the profit multiple that underpins that $27.52 fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $27.52 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this roadmap can unravel if global store expansion underperforms or if IP driven product cycles miss consumer trends, which could pressure both growth assumptions and margin expectations.

Next Steps

Seeing both risks and rewards in the story so far, you may want to review the data for yourself and consider acting before sentiment shifts again by checking the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.