Recent attention on Mondelez International (MDLZ) has centered on its 2026 CAGNY Conference messaging regarding long term growth plans and the appointment of Ziad Abla to lead Mondelez Arabia in Saudi Arabia.

Against this backdrop of conference messaging, dividends and buybacks, Mondelez International’s share price has a 30 day return of 4.6% and a year to date share price return of 11.6%, while the 5 year total shareholder return sits at 23.9%, suggesting momentum has recently picked up after a much softer 3 year total shareholder return.

If you are comparing Mondelez with other branded consumer names, it can also be useful to widen the lens and look at ownership quality by checking out our 23 top founder-led companies.

With Mondelez highlighting long term plans at CAGNY, reporting annual revenue of US$38.5b and net income of US$2.5b, and trading at US$59.86, the key question is whether the current valuation leaves upside on the table or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.2% Undervalued

On Simply Wall St’s most followed narrative, Mondelez International’s fair value sits at $66.69 compared with the last close of $59.86, putting the spotlight on what is priced into its future cash flows.

Mondelez International is executing a robust pricing strategy in response to high cocoa costs, which is expected to improve revenue as pricing takes effect globally, especially in markets like Europe and emerging markets. The company is implementing a strategic growth agenda that includes reinvesting in brands, expanding distribution, and strengthening market presence, which should positively impact revenue growth and market share.

Curious what assumptions sit behind that valuation gap, the earnings path it implies and the profit margins the narrative expects Mondelez to reach, the full story lays out the numbers that support this fair value case.

Result: Fair Value of $66.69 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that fair value case still hinges on cocoa costs easing and consumer volumes stabilising, both of which could challenge margins if they move in the wrong direction.

Next Steps

If this mix of opportunity and risk has you thinking, do not wait around. Weigh the numbers yourself and check out 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you are weighing up Mondelez, it is worth lining it up against a few other clear ideas from different angles using the Simply Wall St screener.

• Target quality at a reasonable price by scanning our list of 56 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with compelling valuations.
• Prioritise resilience by reviewing 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on stability metrics and may suit a more cautious approach.
• Hunt for future leaders before they hit the spotlight with our screener containing 24 high quality undiscovered gems built around companies with strong underlying numbers.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.