MP Materials (MP) is back in focus after a series of government backed moves, including a US$400 million Pentagon investment for a 15% stake and a 10 year rare earth supply agreement.

After these government backed moves and the 10X Texas project, MP’s share price has had a steady year to date with a 13.24% share price return. The 1 year total shareholder return of 155.75% points to strong longer term momentum.

If this rare earth story has your attention, it could be a good moment to see what else is out there in the sector through our 29 best rare earth metal stocks available on Simply Wall St.

With the stock up 156% over the past year and trading at US$62.25, plus an indicated 44% intrinsic discount, the real question is whether MP is still undervalued or if the market has already priced in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 22.4% Overvalued

MP Materials last closed at $62.25, while the most followed narrative on Simply Wall St, according to OOO97, places fair value at $50.85 using a discounted cash flow framework.

MP Materials represents the highest conviction idea in the sector for 2026. The market is currently pricing MP as a mining company, ignoring its imminent transformation into a high margin industrial manufacturer. The "10X Facility" partnership with the Department of Defense (DoD) 48 fundamentally de risks the downside while providing explosive upside.

Curious what kind of revenue mix and margin profile would justify this higher fair value, even with current losses and heavy investment. The narrative leans on aggressive earnings expansion, rising profitability, and a future earnings multiple usually linked to established industrial franchises. Want to see exactly which revenue ramp and margin assumptions sit under that price tag.

Result: Fair Value of $50.85 (OVERVALUED)

However, this thesis still leans heavily on ambitious 2030 volume and margin assumptions, and any delay or shortfall in magnet ramp up or DoD related volumes could challenge it.

Another View: DCF Points to Undervaluation

That user narrative lands on a fair value of $50.85 and describes MP as overvalued, but our DCF model comes out very differently. With a future cash flow value of $110.52, MP at $62.25 screens as trading at a 43.7% discount. Which perspective aligns more closely with your risk tolerance?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out MP Materials for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 50 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If this mix of bullish and cautious takes feels split, now is a good time to check the numbers yourself and decide where you stand, then weigh those impressions against the 3 key rewards that investors are currently watching.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you are weighing up MP, do not stop there. Run a few targeted screeners so you are not missing opportunities that might suit you even better.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning our list of 50 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with appealing price tags.
• Prioritise resilience by checking out 67 resilient stocks with low risk scores, focusing on companies with more stable risk profiles that may suit cautious capital.
• Hunt for early stage potential by reviewing our 33 elite penny stocks with strong financials where smaller names could offer differentiated exposure for a high conviction portfolio slot.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.