MPLX (MPLX) recently laid out guidance indicating that 2026 EBITDA is expected to be above 2025 levels, tied to gas and NGL projects such as Secretariat I, Harmon Creek III, Blackcomb, Bengal, and Gulf Coast expansions.

At a share price of $55.57, MPLX has seen modest recent moves, with the 1-day share price return up 1.39% and the year-to-date share price return up 3.16%. The 1-year total shareholder return of 16.41% and very large 5-year total shareholder return near 3x suggest longer term holders have seen stronger compounding as investors weigh softer recent quarterly results, ongoing buybacks, and new gas and NGL projects coming online.

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So with MPLX posting softer recent earnings, ongoing buybacks, and guidance tied to new gas and NGL projects, is the current price giving you a reasonable entry, or is the market already pricing in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 8.4% Undervalued

At a last close of $55.57 versus a narrative fair value of $60.64, the most followed view sees some upside as MPLX leans into gas and NGL growth.

The recent acquisition of Northwind Midstream and full ownership of BANGL NGL pipeline, both adjacent and complementary to MPLX's existing Permian infrastructure, are set to drive higher throughput, expand access to dedicated acreage, and unlock additional volumes, supporting both revenue growth and improved operating margins over the next several years.

Want to see what sits behind that fair value gap? Forecast revenue, earnings power, margins, and the P/E the narrative assumes all have to line up. The details might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $60.64 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this narrative can break if MPLX overbuilds NGL and LPG export capacity into weaker demand, or if shorter term processing contracts roll off on less favorable terms.

Next Steps

With both risks and rewards in play, does the current narrative around MPLX match how you see the stock, or is it skewed by recent headlines? Take a closer look at the data, move quickly while sentiment is still forming, and weigh up the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.